Do you have the guts to hit?

Timothy Chow

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Jun 6, 2023, 9:35:55 AM6/6/23

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The subject line is stolen from an old BGO post by Mislav Kovacic.

https://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=84926

XGID=-BABABCB----ba---bBbbdb---:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O O |
| O X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 98 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

Timothy Chow

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Jun 8, 2023, 9:13:44 AM6/8/23

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XGID=-BABABCB----ba---bBbbdb---:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O O |
| O X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 98 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

I continue to find these sorts of positions difficult to judge. Take a
look at how much difference it makes if we shift the blots around in
X's board.

1. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.054
Player: 48.44% (G:2.78% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 51.56% (G:2.50% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.061..-0.046) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/13* eq:-0.238 (-0.184)
Player: 45.67% (G:14.29% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 54.33% (G:30.36% B:3.31%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.248..-0.227) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-ABABBCB----ba---bBbbdb---:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O O |
| O X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 94 O: 98 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X to play 32

1. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/3 eq:-0.034
Player: 48.51% (G:3.10% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 51.49% (G:2.04% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.043..-0.026) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/13* eq:-0.054 (-0.020)
Player: 53.41% (G:17.01% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 46.59% (G:26.73% B:2.70%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.062..-0.047) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

ah...Clem

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Jun 8, 2023, 5:59:48 PM6/8/23

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O's board looks too strong to offer up a double shot, plus X is ahead in
the race. So, I'll just cover and hope to get off the anchor safely and
win the race. 7/4 6/4.

Stick Rice

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Jun 28, 2023, 10:32:40 AM6/28/23

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When you shift the blots around and one of them is now an ace point blot with our bar point made you've essentially dulled the power of the opponent's hitting numbers almost half. If we hit do we want to get hit anywhere in return? No, of course not...but if we are hit only the one on the ace point in one position the opponent's equity will be positive but no big deal, in the original position the opponent will be beyond too good.

Another thing one should be looking at is does cube possession matter as in a lot of similar cases it does. Lastly, we should move the opp's spares in his inner board around and look how that potentially effects our play.

Stick