Early(ish) blitz cube action

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=bB--BAC-B--AcB---abcb-b-B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[peps...@gmail.com]

A clear double with two in the air.
I would take this, but without much confidence.
Extricating those back men can be difficult and we don't have much ammunition at the front.
If X can move a back checker and simultaneously cover the 5 point blot, X will normally lose
market hugely. So it is a double.

Mr. Take-Blitz-Cubes

[Timothy Chow]

I had some trouble judging O's defensive potential here since I
didn't have a good reference position memorized. If I had had
to guess, I would have guessed that X would win a little over
40% gammons from here, but according to the rollout, it's close
to 50%. Move O's outfield blot back to the midpoint and XG
says it's a take.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 65.47% (G:47.94% B:1.68%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.53% (G:10.07% B:0.77%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.79% (G:48.51% B:1.50%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.21% (G:10.18% B:0.80%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.841 (-0.159)
Double/Take: +1.146 (+0.146)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.827..+0.855)
Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+1.126..+1.165)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=bB--BAC-B--AdB----bcb-b-B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| X O | | O O O X |

| X O | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 134 O: 150 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 63.48% (G:44.82% B:0.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.52% (G:10.52% B:0.74%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.87% (G:45.69% B:0.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.13% (G:10.72% B:0.76%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.778 (-0.191)
Double/Take: +0.968
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.032)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.765..+0.790)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.951..+0.986)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

[peps...@gmail.com]

It's a good problem together with its variant.
Someone drunk in a pub in Essex, drowning her sorrows in beer after
her football team has been knocked out of the FA cup, might misconstrue
the difference in the two positions exactly the other way, and assume that the variant is
worse for the underdog because of the lost opportunity to make the 8 point.
I know it's hard to believe that someone would show such a basic misunderstanding,
but alcohol combined with grief can addle one's thinking.
There's a price to be paid for putting the clocks forward in that people can now start drinking earlier.

Paul