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sauve moi? qui, moi?

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Robert Zimmerman

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Mar 23, 2023, 5:24:49 PM3/23/23
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XGID=---b-BCBC---bC-A-cbdb---A-:0:0:1:21:0:2:0:7:10

Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 142 X-O: 0-2/7
Cube: 1
X to play 21


Timothy Chow

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Mar 24, 2023, 9:11:04 AM3/24/23
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I think it's more urgent to step up the back checker than to safety
the outfield blot. O's midpoint is stripped and her prime/board isn't
any stronger than ours. So I'd play 24/22, and then 22/21 seems to
give O too many double-hitting rolls, so I'd play 15/14.

---
Tim Chow

Robert Zimmerman

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Mar 24, 2023, 1:48:38 PM3/24/23
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The play is to work on getting the back checker out of there. Coming all the way to the edge of the prime was preferred by XG, possibly because that brings it 6 pips from the other blot, but tinkering with the position gives me doubts about that. Out of curiosity (Tim's post) regarding what 1 would be played with 24/22, XG doesn't move the blot on 15, possibly to duplicate 3s and to avoid a 65 hit from Os anchor. 66 from the anchor would be the death knell for X and the blot on 15 would just be going to the funeral.

Bob

XGID=---b-BCBC---bC-A-cbdb---A-:0:0:1:21:0:2:0:7:10

Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| O O | | O O X |
| O | | O X |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 142 X-O: 0-2/7
Cube: 1
X to play 21

1. Rollout¹ 24/21 eq:+0.100
Player: 52.00% (G:12.25% B:0.59%)
Opponent: 48.00% (G:17.67% B:0.81%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (+0.081..+0.119) - [99.9%]
Duration: 2 minutes 14 seconds

2. Rollout² 24/22 8/7 eq:+0.056 (-0.044)
Player: 51.19% (G:12.73% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 48.81% (G:18.29% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (+0.038..+0.075) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 minutes 12 seconds

3. Rollout² 13/10 eq:+0.052 (-0.048)
Player: 50.53% (G:11.96% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 49.47% (G:17.20% B:0.88%)
Confidence: ±0.021 (+0.031..+0.074) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds

4. Rollout² 24/22 6/5 eq:+0.049 (-0.051)
Player: 51.03% (G:11.70% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 48.97% (G:18.21% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (+0.031..+0.067) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 14 seconds

5. Rollout² 15/13 8/7 eq:+0.037 (-0.064)
Player: 49.67% (G:10.30% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 50.33% (G:13.56% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.020 (+0.017..+0.056) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 26 seconds


¹ 550 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 551 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Timothy Chow

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Mar 25, 2023, 9:36:42 AM3/25/23
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On 3/24/2023 1:48 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

> regarding what 1 would be played with 24/22, XG doesn't move the blot on 15, possibly to duplicate 3s and to avoid a 65 hit from Os anchor.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that duplication is an important part of it.
Somehow, I hallucinated that moving the blot on the 15 was a
duplication play, but it's an UNduplication play, so certainly
not good.

---
Tim Chow
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