Not-so-early blitz cube

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=aB-B--DCA--Ad----cBc-bb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O |
| O X | | O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 108 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[peps...@gmail.com]

Big double, big take.
Not many rolls will escape our 18 point checkers.
We may decide to break the 18 point anchor while our
opponent is on the bar, but that is likely to give the
opponent many dangerous return hits.
Basically, bringing the 18 point checkers home is enough
of a problem to give the opponent a take.

But should we double?
Yes. Making another inner board point, followed by the opponent's
dance could lose our market. Doubles that advance our 18 point anchor
could lose our market. Breaking the 18 point while the opponent's on the bar,
without the opponent hitting, could lose market.

D/T

Paul

[Renan Moritz]

Agreed
Regards,

[ah....Clem]

13 in the zone, 3 point board, and a checker on the roof. Seems like a
ton of market losers and few if any really bad sequences.

Can O take? If she manages to enter and run to the outfield she's right
back in it, plus X's made ace point is a liability. So, I'll go with D/T.


--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

[ah....Clem]

On 7/7/2023 8:23 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

13 in the zone, 3 point board, a checker on the roof. Seems like a ton

[Timothy Chow]

I find late blitz cubes harder to master than early blitz cubes,
because there are a lot more variables to consider. O is down
25 pips and X has 13 checkers in the zone, with his back checkers
partially escaped. X's attack looked threatening enough to me
that I passed. However, XG says that O can take. There are a
lot of variants worth considering here, but I'll give just one.
If we shift X's 1pt to his 2pt then XG says it's a clear pass.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.79% (G:26.04% B:0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.21% (G:6.15% B:0.27%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.69% (G:26.27% B:0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.31% (G:6.13% B:0.29%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.696 (-0.132)
Double/Take: +0.828
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.172)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.687..+0.706)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.813..+0.844)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=a-BB--DCA--Ad----cBc-bb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O |
| O X | | O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 110 O: 133 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 70.41% (G:27.02% B:0.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.59% (G:5.04% B:0.20%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.71% (G:27.88% B:0.22%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.29% (G:5.33% B:0.25%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.793 (-0.207)
Double/Take: +1.073 (+0.073)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.783..+0.802)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+1.059..+1.086)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

[Stick Rice]

In your variant you should include the _why_ of shifting from the ace point to the deuce point makes it a pass. On the surface it sounds like 'hey, we got a better point so turns it into a pass'. That's not the case of course though. If we were to shift our 3pt to the 4pt there wouldn't be much of a difference in the take/pass decision. That's because when we shift the one point to the two point and we have the made bar point now we've made it so a whole lot more of our opponent's entering numbers aren't nearly as good as they're primed in when they do get in.

Stick