Hit?

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=-B--BcD-BaABd----cBb--b---:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O |
| O X | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X O |
| O X X | | X O X X |
| O X X O X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 170 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

[Timothy Chow]

X is way ahead in the race. If he hits, he leaves a lot of blots lying
around which will give O a chance to hit back and catch up in the race.
By this logic, X should just play safe with something like 10/4, right?

The trouble is that 10/4 leaves X totally stripped in the outfield, and
likely to leave blots under less favorable conditions next turn, or the
turn after that. By hitting now when O's position is still weak, he
gains some time to clear his outside points in relative safety.

In the variant, I have given O a much stronger forward position.

1. Rollout¹ 11/7 11/9* eq:+0.544
Player: 60.21% (G:26.27% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 39.79% (G:8.55% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.534..+0.554) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/9* 10/6 eq:+0.473 (-0.071)
Player: 59.38% (G:24.74% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 40.62% (G:8.53% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.464..+0.482) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout² 10/4 eq:+0.355 (-0.189)
Player: 58.85% (G:17.09% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 41.15% (G:7.83% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.341..+0.368) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout² 10/8 6/2 eq:+0.315 (-0.229)
Player: 58.16% (G:16.80% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 41.84% (G:8.25% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.301..+0.329) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-B--BcD-BaABc---bbBbb-----:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| O O X | | O O |
| O O X | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |

| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X O |
| O X X | | X O X X |
| O X X O X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 118 O: 171 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 10/4 eq:+0.073
Player: 52.30% (G:14.24% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 47.70% (G:9.88% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.066..+0.080) - [72.1%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/9* 10/6 eq:+0.070 (-0.003)
Player: 50.77% (G:20.46% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 49.23% (G:11.07% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.060..+0.079) - [27.9%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/8 6/2 eq:+0.056 (-0.017)
Player: 52.03% (G:14.01% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 47.97% (G:10.14% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.049..+0.064) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/7 11/9* eq:+0.052 (-0.021)
Player: 50.62% (G:20.67% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 49.38% (G:11.61% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.042..+0.062) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow