Position from the Campaign Against Backgammon Cliches

[peps...@gmail.com]

I knew I had a strong advantage here but was I good enough to double?
I correctly thought not but I didn't really know.
And with the hold being so close, I'd be somewhat sceptical of any
player who claimed that the hold is clear.

So how about the slogan: "If you're not sure if it's a double,
double anyway because they might pass"?

Well here I think that practical consideration swings the decision
exactly the other way.
Yes, a player _may_ pass but it really seems extremely unlikely.
There is plenty of contact left and the opponent has a much stronger
board.
If you double, you help your opponent by giving them an easy cube
action. So, even if you don't know if this is a double or not (and
probably no one would know this) then hold because your opponent
might wrongly take if you lose your market.

Paul

XGID=----bEB-E-a--BA--d-dbb----:0:0:1:00:0:1:3:0:10

X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
Score is X:0 O:1. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 131 X-O: 0-1
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 70.27% (G:4.34% B:0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.73% (G:2.75% B:0.08%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.43% (G:4.40% B:0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.57% (G:2.67% B:0.07%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.421, Double=+0.852

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.699
Double/Take: +0.672 (-0.027)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.301)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.6%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.689..+0.709)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.660..+0.683)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 3 minutes 40 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10