I think the analogy fits so well that I don't
see any harm in refreshing it every so often.
The "retrograde movements" of some planets is
an illusion that astronomers before Copenicus
explained with "epicycles". They were able to
concoct mathematical functions that accurately
enough explained their illusions.
Today backgammon "experts", bot developers, etc.
are doing the same thing. They invent, improve,
adjust, readjust, twine, tweak (often with arbitrary
constants) clever formulas to fit their illusions.
And then they use self-proving methods to validate
them, like cubeful opening move roll outs, etc.
I wonder how long it will take backgammon to come
out of the darkness of "bad science"?? Hopefully
not many centuries...
MK
PS: Here are a few astronomy links if interested.
http://earthsky.org/space/what-is-retrograde-motion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deferent_and_epicycle