Money session. Score X-O: 0-0
O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| O O O X O | | O O |
| O O O X O | | O O |
| X O | | O | S
| | | | n
| | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | | | i
| | | | e
| | | |
| X X X X | | X |
| X X X X X | | X X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 120 O: 106 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1
O has the racing edge but X has O's five point and what looks to be
reasonable timing. O is probably a favorite but with few market losers
(such as 44 or 55), I'd recommend waiting for a better opportunity.
With 0's shot equity and a not overwhelming racing lead, there are very
few market losing sequences in the next two ply (0's roll followed by
X's roll). No double, for sure. However, X can't beaver if 0 blunders
and doubles.
Money session. Score X-O: 0-0
O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| O O O X O | | O O |
| O O O X O | | O O |
| X O | | O | S
| | | | n
| | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | | | i
| | | | e
| | | |
| X X X X | | X |
| X X X X X | | X X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 120 O: 106 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1
3-Ply Money equity: 0,365
0,2% 4,2% 67,7% 32,3% 3,2% 0,1%
1. No double 0,548
2. Double, take 0,495 (-0,053)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,452)
Proper cube action: No double, take 10%
------------------------------ End ----------------------------------
Money session. Score X-O: 0-0
O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| O O O X O | | O O |
| O O O X O | | O O |
| X O | | O | S
| | | | n
| | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | | | i
| | | | e
| | | |
| X X X X | | X |
| X X X X X | | X X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 120 O: 106 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1
Rollout Money equity: 0,366
0,2% 2,9% 68,1% 31,9% 2,6% 0,0%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0,366 ą0,019,
- live cube no double: 0,608 ą0,032,
- live cube double take: 0,559 ą0,039.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
324 games (equiv. 15157 games),
played 3-ply (standard), cube 3-ply,
settlement 0,550 at 16 pts,
seed 1, without race database.
Evaluations
1. No double 0,552
2. Double, take 0,500 (-0,052)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,448)
Proper cube action: No double, take 10%
Live cube
1. No double 0,608
2. Double, take 0,559 (-0,049)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,392)
Proper cube action: No double, take 11%
I guess not.
On Fri, 23 Sep 2005 16:47:25 GMT, "Micke Nilsson" <na...@home.se>
wrote:
************************
David C. Ullrich
So I see a contradiction between your analysis and your conclusion.
Perhaps the problem is that you didn't apply the racing formula to see
how narrow the drop would be if it were a pure race.
Paul Epstein