Blitz versus prime cube action 2

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=bBB-BBCAA--------bcbbbBb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X O |
| O O | | O O O X O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X X X |
| X X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 121 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[Timothy Chow]

X has serious chances of winning a gammon, but he needs to roll a 6
soon or his forward position is going to collapse. Despite the gammons,
this is a very easy take for O, and the question is whether X has enough
spare pips to double. XG's answer is a resounding yes, but see the
variant.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 62.09% (G:31.95% B:0.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.91% (G:7.90% B:0.32%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.20% (G:32.15% B:0.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.80% (G:8.02% B:0.33%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.465 (-0.171)
Double/Take: +0.636
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.364)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.453..+0.478)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.620..+0.652)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

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Variant
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XGID=bBB-CCC----------bcbbbBb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X O |
| O O | | O O O X O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | X X X |
| | | X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 95 O: 121 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 56.10% (G:26.32% B:0.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.90% (G:9.32% B:0.33%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.27% (G:25.88% B:0.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.73% (G:9.36% B:0.32%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.232
Double/Take: +0.195 (-0.037)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.768)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 4.4%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.221..+0.243)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.179..+0.211)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

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Tim Chow