Blitz vs. prime cube action

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=aDBCB-B----a---aA-bcbcbA--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| O | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 76 O: 109 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[Timothy Chow]

The two blots in the outfield mean that O loses a lot of gammons.
I thought this looked like a pass, but XG says it's a clear take.
If we rearrange X's dead checkers a little more favorably, as in
the variant below, we can make XG pass.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 64.36% (G:31.76% B:0.50%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.64% (G:4.47% B:0.14%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.54% (G:31.75% B:0.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.46% (G:4.60% B:0.14%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.705 (-0.192)
Redouble/Take: +0.897
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.103)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.699..+0.711)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.885..+0.908)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aCCBC-B----a---aA-bcbcbA--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| O | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 78 O: 109 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 65.77% (G:33.32% B:0.63%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.23% (G:4.15% B:0.13%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.13% (G:33.13% B:0.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.87% (G:4.33% B:0.14%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.750 (-0.250)
Redouble/Take: +1.000 (+0.000)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.744..+0.756)
Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+0.991..+1.009)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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Tim Chow