Late blitz cube

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=a-BAACC--A---B-ca-Bbb-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 115 O: 98 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[peps...@gmail.com]

With the opponent's other blot under attack, any dance will massively lose our market.
It's a monster double, and the only question is whether it's D/P or D/T. It isn't close to being TG.
I think it's D/T because we may fail to cover both blots and then be hit ourselves. And that's not the only way
we can lose.

Paul

[Timothy Chow]

I passed this cube and was surprised that XG said I should have
taken it. Duplication of 2's has something to do with it; see
the variant below, where I have moved O's outfield blot and XG
thinks it's a massive pass.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 69.45% (G:25.59% B:0.48%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.55% (G:13.35% B:0.42%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.36% (G:24.99% B:0.48%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.64% (G:13.56% B:0.48%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.682 (-0.233)
Redouble/Take: +0.915
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.085)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.676..+0.688)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.903..+0.926)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=a-BAACC--A---Bac--Bbb-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 115 O: 100 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 72.75% (G:30.05% B:0.50%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.25% (G:11.48% B:0.48%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.07% (G:29.20% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.93% (G:11.44% B:0.53%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.804 (-0.196)
Redouble/Take: +1.203 (+0.203)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+0.801..+0.807)
Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+1.198..+1.209)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

[peps...@gmail.com]

I called this one pretty accurately, I think, recognising that the
real question was whether it's D/P or D/T, and also getting it right.

I missed the point about duplication.
The variant is better for the on-roll player than the original for other reasons,
though. It is harder for the opponent to safety the other blot in the variant.
And if the opponent dances, there are more fours than there are twos.

Paul

[peps...@gmail.com]

I forgot another important reason that the variant is stronger for the on-roll player.
In the original position, the opponent can create a 9 and 10 point mini prime on rolling an ace --
quite a strong formation.

So I'm not sure that duplication is such a key reason why the variant is better for the on-roll player
than the original hamburger.

Paul