I couldn't understand O'Hagan's accent

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peps...@gmail.com

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May 16, 2022, 6:50:14 PMMay 16
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My double below seemed very Ohaganistic to me and I was
(wrongly) confident in it, although I was also sure of the take.
It's kind of a fairly even game but my shots are very powerful.
And there are 13 of them.
In what sense was I misapplying O'Hagan's rule?
I could just ask O'Hagan but I don't know his email address,
and he isn't a Facebook friend of mine or a linkedin contact.

Paul

XGID=-CcBBBC---------Aa-cbbbBb-:2:1:1:00:2:2:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon


Score is X:2 O:2. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X O |
| | | O O O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X O X | +---+
| | | X X X X O X | | 4 |
| | | X X X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 121 X-O: 2-2
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 60.52% (G:21.68% B:0.81%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.48% (G:10.83% B:0.41%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.323, Double=+0.652

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.495
Redouble/Take: +0.379 (-0.116)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.505)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.7%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Timothy Chow

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May 16, 2022, 9:50:12 PMMay 16
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On 5/16/2022 6:50 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> My double below seemed very Ohaganistic to me and I was
> (wrongly) confident in it, although I was also sure of the take.
> It's kind of a fairly even game but my shots are very powerful.
> And there are 13 of them.
> In what sense was I misapplying O'Hagan's rule?

There are quite a few hit/enter sequences that allow O to take.

---
Tim Chow

peps...@gmail.com

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May 17, 2022, 3:29:40 AMMay 17
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On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 2:50:12 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 5/16/2022 6:50 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > My double below seemed very Ohaganistic to me and I was
> > (wrongly) confident in it, although I was also sure of the take. Bu
> > It's kind of a fairly even game but my shots are very powerful.
> > And there are 13 of them.
> > In what sense was I misapplying O'Hagan's rule?
> There are quite a few hit/enter sequences that allow O to take.
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
But even hit/dance has > the 25% Ohaganistic threshold.
13/36 * 25/36 > 25% last time I checked.
Assuming that even hit/enter sometimes loses market, we get way over 25%.

Paul

Stick Rice

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May 17, 2022, 6:10:42 AMMay 17
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The easiest thing is O'Hagan's Law is meant for a centered cube, not a recube. While I have stated before the rough number of MLS we need for a recube, I don't know if you know that. (and I assume you don't given your follow up post to Tim's response) You also need to keep market crashers in the back of your mind, like [44] in this position for eg.

Stick

peps...@gmail.com

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May 17, 2022, 9:04:33 AMMay 17
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No, I don't know the number of MLS for a recube. Hopefully, Tim will tell me.
Is the above position an initial cube? (For some reason, I have never found a way to set up positions with XG.
When I post positions, they are always positions from my games, rather than variantizations.)

Paul

Simon Woodhead

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May 17, 2022, 6:58:57 PMMay 17
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On 17/05/2022 11:04 pm, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

For some reason, I have never found a way to set up positions with XG.

When you load xg, the first splash screen includes "Set up a position".
Try clicking on that, it just might do what it says.

Timothy Chow

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May 17, 2022, 7:03:53 PMMay 17
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Also, File -> New -> Setup position

---
Tim Chow

Stick Rice

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May 18, 2022, 4:47:13 AMMay 18
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Also Ctrl + J or even Ctrl + V depending where you want to take it from. And yes, the original position is an initial cube.

Stick

peps...@gmail.com

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May 18, 2022, 3:57:18 PMMay 18
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I think I got that far. However actually placing the checkers where I wanted them
proved too difficult for me.

Paul
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