Another priming battle

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Timothy Chow

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May 19, 2022, 9:58:40 AMMay 19
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XGID=-a-aBBBBBB--a---bcbcb-A-B-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X X |
| O O O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X X | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

Timothy Chow

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May 21, 2022, 11:21:16 AMMay 21
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Keep a solid five-prime, or hit? XG says hit. Part of the point is
that X still has a pretty good prime after 8/3*, with (for example)
O's checker on X's 1pt *not* at the edge of the prime. 8/3* does
lose more gammons, but even at gammon save, XG slightly favors 8/3*.

1. Rollout¹ 8/3* eq:-0.618
Player: 35.44% (G:10.88% B:0.62%)
Opponent: 64.56% (G:23.90% B:2.06%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.633..-0.602) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/21 7/3* eq:-0.759 (-0.141)
Player: 33.78% (G:10.36% B:0.71%)
Opponent: 66.22% (G:26.56% B:2.95%)
Confidence: ±0.022 (-0.781..-0.737) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 9/8 9/5 eq:-0.761 (-0.144)
Player: 32.15% (G:9.09% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 67.85% (G:21.96% B:1.64%)
Confidence: ±0.022 (-0.783..-0.739) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 22/21 9/5 eq:-0.777 (-0.159)
Player: 33.07% (G:10.07% B:0.68%)
Opponent: 66.93% (G:25.76% B:2.56%)
Confidence: ±0.024 (-0.800..-0.753) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 24/23 9/5 eq:-0.788 (-0.170)
Player: 32.74% (G:9.07% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 67.26% (G:24.65% B:1.92%)
Confidence: ±0.023 (-0.811..-0.765) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow
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