Resign decision at 3a 2a

[ah....Clem]

I don't get many of these, so I don't have much practice, and I don't
know how to query XG to get a ruling.

I'm behind 4 to 5 in a match to 7 with a lot of gammon chances but a
fair number of losses. My opponent offered to resign a single game
(which many people think is bad form when gammons are still possible,
but my opinion is that it's a valid prop in situations like this.

So, do you accept the point and go to (basically) DMP or play on for the
gammon?

And if you know how to do a rollout for a decision like this, please
post. Thanks.


XGID=aDC-Aa-------ac--cbb-b----:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:7:10

X:You O:O
Score is X:4 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| O O O O | | O O |
| O O O | | O O |
| O O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| | | O X X X |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count X: 14 O: 148 X-O: 4-5/7
Cube: 1
O on roll, cube action


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[peps...@gmail.com]

This "offer" isn't legal play.
There's no meta-rule in backgammon that says that anything goes
so long as the two players agree.
If there were such a meta rule then, if both players felt tired at the beginning
of a match to 25, they could agree to make the score 24/24 and play at DMP.

Paul

[Axel Reichert]

"ah....Clem" <ah_...@ymail.com> writes:

> My opponent offered to resign a single game (which many people think
> is bad form when gammons are still possible,

At least according to European Backgammon Federation rules, resignations
are illegal as long as there is contact.

> So, do you accept the point

No.

> know how to do a rollout for a decision like this

A standard rollout for your opponent shows that her equity is about
-1.6, far below -1, with about 70 per cent of the games getting
gammoned. Now if you accept the illegal resignation, you are trading 1
point for 1.6 points. Yes, from your point of view it will often (after
the gammons) be -1/-2 Crawford, whereas after accepting the resignation
it will be -2/-2. So you are waisting the potential free drop.

Best regards

Axel

[Timothy Chow]

On 6/3/2023 2:42 PM, Axel Reichert wrote:
> A standard rollout for your opponent shows that her equity is about
> -1.6, far below -1, with about 70 per cent of the games getting
> gammoned. Now if you accept the illegal resignation, you are trading 1
> point for 1.6 points. Yes, from your point of view it will often (after
> the gammons) be -1/-2 Crawford, whereas after accepting the resignation
> it will be -2/-2. So you are waisting the potential free drop.

I agree with this except for the comment about a "free drop."
As you said, if ah_clem wins a gammon, it will be -1/-2 *Crawford*
(or gammon save) and not -1/-2 *post-Crawford*, when he would indeed
have a free drop.

The other comment I have is that you don't even need a rollout here.
In XG, right-click in the "Winning Chances" box, and then select
"Display as -> Match Winning Chances". This will tell you that your
opponent has only slightly more than 40% match-winning chances at
this point, which is much less than the 50% he would have if you
accepted just 1 point.

---
Tim Chow

[Axel Reichert]

Timothy Chow <tchow...@yahoo.com> writes:

> As you said, if ah_clem wins a gammon, it will be -1/-2 *Crawford*
> (or gammon save) and not -1/-2 *post-Crawford*, when he would indeed
> have a free drop.

Sorry, of course. I mixed this up and stand corrected.

Best regards

Axel

[ah...Clem]

On 6/3/2023 2:00 PM, ah....Clem wrote:

>
> XGID=aDC-Aa-------ac--cbb-b----:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:7:10
>
> X:You   O:O
> Score is X:4 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>  | O  O        O  O |   | O     O          |
>  |    O        O  O |   | O     O          |
>  |    O        O    |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  | O |                  |
>  |                  |   |                X |
>  |                  |   |             X  X |
>  |                  |   |             X  X |
>  |                  |   |    O  X     X  X |
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> Pip count  X: 14  O: 148 X-O: 4-5/7
> Cube: 1
> O on roll, cube action
>

No rollout because Axel and Tim have already given enough numbers to see
that accepting this resign is a blunder. Thanks.

I had to think a bit, but decided that there were enough gammons to be
had and that if hit there's still a lot of game left - with 7 checkers
off, even if O manages a closeout X is still about 40% to win.

I declined, O shook a 64 to to his, but I eventually straggled home for
the single point win.

This was on FIBS, where there's no rule about when and how to offer a
resignation, other than if it will end the match it's automatically
accepted.

[peps...@gmail.com]

The automatic acceptance rule was not there in the early days of FIBS (approx 1994 or so).
I remember resigning a single to concede the match and my opponent refusing on the
basis of having gammon possibilities.
He thought that he would get more rating points if he beat me with a higher score.

Paul

[Stick Rice]

Don't forget in positions like these that when your opponent does get lucky and hit he has to play the game out. You're getting XG's evaluation for playing the game out. It's pretty safe to say your opponent isn't going to come near playing this game out as well as XG would from his side. You, however, when you're hit, I suspect you'll play the game out just as well as XG.

Stick