I dropped this cube when I noted the following: X has ten checkers
in the zone and is way ahead in the pip count. He has gotten one
of his back checkers going and O has made no new points. So I was
surprised to see that XG deems this a clear take. What I think I
underestimated was how many ways there are for O to make a decent
anchor and develop a playable holding game. When O has one on the
bar and two in X's home board while X's board is still weak, she
typically loses a lot of gammons but also has reasonable winning
chances.
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 65.38% (G:33.14% B:2.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.62% (G:7.08% B:0.34%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.64% (G:33.36% B:2.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.36% (G:7.08% B:0.37%)
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.784 (-0.124)
Double/Take: +0.908
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.092)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.769..+0.798)
Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.886..+0.929)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=aa-Ba-C-CB--eC---c-d-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | O | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 183 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.87% (G:31.94% B:2.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.13% (G:6.35% B:0.25%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.90% (G:32.89% B:2.43%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.10% (G:6.57% B:0.27%)
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.819 (-0.152)
Double/Take: +0.971
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.029)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.804..+0.834)
Confidence Double: ± 0.024 (+0.946..+0.995)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow