Double 5 to play

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=-Ba---D-C---cCb--bCcbb----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O |
| X O O X | | O O O |
| X X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

---
Tim Chow

[Timothy Chow]

I always play with the pip count turned off, and here it didn't register
on my mind---and I didn't bother to check by counting---that this roll
puts me ahead in the pip count, so that clearing the 18pt is thematic.

What's more surprising to me, and what would make a more interesting
puzzle, is the variant, where O's blot is on X's 3pt. Then PoH is very
tempting, but XG still deems it a whopper.

1. Rollout¹ 18/13(2) 18/8 eq:+0.262
Player: 56.84% (G:6.00% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 43.16% (G:7.76% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.252..+0.271) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/3 8/3 eq:+0.090 (-0.171)
Player: 51.66% (G:12.47% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 48.34% (G:11.22% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.079..+0.101) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-B-a--D-C---cCb--bCcbb----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O |
| X O O X | | O O O |
| X X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 143 O: 135 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X to play 55

1. Rollout¹ 18/13(2) 18/8 eq:+0.310
Player: 57.94% (G:5.15% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 42.06% (G:4.42% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.301..+0.319) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/3* 8/3 eq:+0.187 (-0.123)
Player: 54.01% (G:14.06% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 45.99% (G:9.21% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.175..+0.199) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow