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Which point to make?

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Timothy Chow

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May 22, 2023, 9:24:27 AM5/22/23
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XGID=-bB-CCB-CAA--aa--abbbb-b--:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O O | | O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| X | | X X X X O |
| X X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 86 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

Timothy Chow

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May 24, 2023, 8:36:43 AM5/24/23
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XG thinks that O's board is too strong to allow even 4 hitting rolls.

1. Rollout¹ 10/9 8/6 eq:+0.796
Player: 86.16% (G:12.02% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 13.84% (G:0.42% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.791..+0.800) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 5/3 4/3 eq:+0.709 (-0.087)
Player: 82.82% (G:12.64% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 17.18% (G:1.49% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.704..+0.714) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 9/7 8/7 eq:+0.676 (-0.120)
Player: 81.47% (G:10.83% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 18.53% (G:0.82% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.671..+0.681) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-bB-CCB-CAA--aa--abcba-b--:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O O | | O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| X | | X X X X O |
| X X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 86 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 21

1. Rollout¹ 5/3 4/3 eq:+0.819
Player: 85.08% (G:16.78% B:1.52%)
Opponent: 14.92% (G:1.17% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.814..+0.823) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/9 8/6 eq:+0.803 (-0.016)
Player: 86.11% (G:12.87% B:0.55%)
Opponent: 13.89% (G:0.48% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.798..+0.808) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow
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