Both 5pt and 18pt in the same problem

[Tim Chow]

XGID=-a-b--EBB-A-dC---cBcaa----:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O |
| X O X | | O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 171 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

[Bradley K. Sherman]

Tim Chow <tchow...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O X | | O O O |
> | X O X | | O |
> | X O | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X X | | X O |
> | O X X X | | X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

> X:145 O:171, Cube:1, X to play 53

18/10

--bks

[badgolferman]

I hate the 18-point because I can never get out of there safely. I'll
take my shot now while O has two blots inboard. 18/13, 18/15

[smcrtorchs]

Like having just one of those problems to consider was not enough!!

I will clear the 18 pt here, mostly because I have noticed a positive correlation between clearing it and the pip advantage that X has.
But there are other things that raise a flag about clearing it. For example the 5 spares on the 6. Where will they go and with what other checkers will they make points? Also if X makes the 5 and even if O does not hit, then the blot on the 8 is quite awkward and so are at least a few numbers of X that I checked like 52 or 43 for example. Finally, next turn O's board will be even better. Begone 18pt. Not to bore you more 18/15 18/13 is my play.

[smcrtorchs]

Like having one of them to consider was not enough!!

I would break the 18, because I have not understood 100% how things work, but I have noticed a positive correlation between clearing the 18 and the pop advantage X has. There are other things going against the 5. For example where will all the spares on the 6 go and with what checkers will they create points? Or the blot on the 8 is awkward even if O does not hit it next turn. What about hitting the guard with the 5 and making the 10? I am not sure, but since the anchor is not that advanced and since the pip advantage is that big and since O's board will be clearly better next turn, I will clear the 18.

[Walt]

Up by 30 in the race, I'd take this opportunity to get off the 18 point
while O has two blots to shoot at. Making the 10 is gravy, so play the
3 as 18/15, which I think reduces shots vs 18/10.

18/13 18/15

--
//Walt

[Tim Chow]

The 5pt wins this rollout. I don't have much to say other than that breaking anchor is riskier than many might think. Yes, O has two blots, but she has quite a few hit-and-cover rolls (especially after 18/15 18/13), and if she's hit back, she doesn't lose much since X has no board. This doesn't automatically mean that she shouldn't take the opportunity to break anchor, but it's no slam dunk.

1. Rollout¹ 10/5 8/5 eq:+0.503
Player: 61.76% (G:17.59% B:0.92%)
Opponent: 38.24% (G:8.40% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.488..+0.518) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/8 eq:+0.464 (-0.039)
Player: 61.73% (G:15.25% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 38.27% (G:8.93% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.450..+0.478) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/10 eq:+0.456 (-0.047)
Player: 61.08% (G:15.60% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 38.92% (G:9.41% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.441..+0.471) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 18/15 18/13 eq:+0.437 (-0.066)
Player: 60.57% (G:15.02% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 39.43% (G:9.53% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.422..+0.452) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 13/8 10/7 eq:+0.420 (-0.083)
Player: 61.19% (G:13.45% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 38.81% (G:8.66% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.406..+0.434) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 13/10 6/1* eq:+0.418 (-0.085)
Player: 60.30% (G:15.23% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 39.70% (G:9.33% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.403..+0.433) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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Tim Chow