The kind of situation badgolferman hates

[Tim Chow]

Haven't heard from badgolferman in a while, but he used to say
that he hated getting into positions where he has trouble getting
off his bar-point anchor safely. In the position below, do you pay now?

XGID=-CAB-bCBB---b----bBcbc-a--:2:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O O | | 4 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 95 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, O own cube
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

[peps...@gmail.com]

On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 4:27:07 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> Haven't heard from badgolferman in a while

After the lockdown eased, he went back to playing golf(?)

Paul

[ah...Clem]

Sometimes when you opt to pay later you don't have to pay at all. This
might be one of them. I'll clear the eight point.

[Tim Chow]

XGID=-CAB-bCBB---b----bBcbc-a--:2:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O O | | 4 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 95 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, O own cube
X to play 65

O has a blot in her board, and X is ahead in the pip count;
these suggest that X should perhaps pay now. On the other
hand, O is stripped and may have to volunteer a shot next
turn, and X has a play that covers the blot in his own board.
XG pays later.

1. Rollout¹ 8/3 8/2 eq:-0.313
Player: 46.35% (G:6.80% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 53.65% (G:12.97% B:0.43%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.322..-0.305) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/2 7/1 eq:-0.386 (-0.073)
Player: 44.17% (G:6.56% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 55.83% (G:14.53% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.395..-0.376) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/7 eq:-0.404 (-0.090)
Player: 42.69% (G:7.85% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 57.31% (G:9.12% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.411..-0.397) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

[Stick Rice]

If the blot in our own inner board was lifted or covered it would be correct to run off the anchor now. If the opponent had a spare checker to play in his outfield it would be correct to pay now.

Stick