Swish

[Robert Zimmerman]

XGID=-bB--BC-A---bE-a-a-dbc--B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O X |
| X | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 138 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 64

[Stick Rice]

And flick.

Stick

[Timothy Chow]

Running seems anti-thematic when we're behind in the race and
vulnerable to attack. The play that leaves the fewest shots
is 8/2 6/2, but that is extremely ugly and I think we can
take more risks than that. 13/9 8/2 is next in line, but also
has limited upside. I think it's either 13/3 or 13/9 13/7.
13/9 13/7 is more blotty but it works better if we're missed,
and even if we're hit, we get some return shows. I'd try
13/9 13/7.

---
Tim Chow

[Robert Zimmerman]

On Tuesday, March 28, 2023 at 5:54:34 PM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

It's not unusual for me to stay back despite an opportunity to run because I look at the pip count and see I'm behind, only to find that XG would have run. Still trying to figure it all out. On top of that, the sight of 3 blots on 678 put me off.
The variant gives X seven pips and the swing for the running play is big. Probably more than just the pips. Likely having a ninth checker forward in a potential blitzing situation has much to do with it.

Bob

XGID=-bB--BC-A---bE-a-a-dbc--B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.

+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+

| X O O O | | O O X |
| X O O O | | X |

| O O | | X |
| O | | X |
| | | X |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| O X X X | | O |
| O X X X | | X O |

+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip count X: 153 O: 138 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/7 eq:-0.534
Player: 40.34% (G:12.67% B:1.38%)
Opponent: 59.66% (G:27.97% B:4.43%)
Confidence: ±0.025 (-0.559..-0.510) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 38 seconds

2. Rollout² 13/3 eq:-0.628 (-0.094)
Player: 38.17% (G:11.40% B:1.09%)
Opponent: 61.83% (G:26.96% B:3.64%)
Confidence: ±0.022 (-0.650..-0.606) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 48 seconds

3. Rollout³ 24/14 eq:-0.630 (-0.096)
Player: 40.11% (G:12.74% B:2.00%)
Opponent: 59.89% (G:33.87% B:1.73%)
Confidence: ±0.021 (-0.652..-0.609) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 35 seconds

¹ 1075 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1074 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 1076 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

-------------------------------------------------------
Variant
-------------------------------------------------------
XGID=-bB--BD-A---bD-a-a-dbc--B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.

+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+

| X O O O | | O O X |
| X O O O | | X |

| O O | | X |
| O | | X |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| O X X X | | O |
| O X X X | | X O |

+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 138 X-O: 0-0/5

Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 24/14 eq:-0.459
Player: 41.42% (G:13.63% B:1.34%)
Opponent: 58.58% (G:29.77% B:1.20%)
Confidence: ±0.026 (-0.485..-0.433) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 36 seconds

2. Rollout² 13/3 eq:-0.548 (-0.089)
Player: 38.90% (G:13.08% B:1.45%)
Opponent: 61.10% (G:25.95% B:3.67%)
Confidence: ±0.032 (-0.580..-0.516) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 45 seconds

3. Rollout³ 13/9 13/7 eq:-0.634 (-0.176)
Player: 38.52% (G:13.02% B:1.72%)
Opponent: 61.48% (G:28.59% B:4.66%)
Confidence: ±0.041 (-0.675..-0.594) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 50 seconds

¹ 385 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 382 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 383 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2