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Late blitz cube action 2
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Timothy Chow
Sep 11, 2023, 9:20:04 AM9/11/23
to
XGID=bBB--cB-D---AB--ab-cbAbA--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | O | |
| X | | O |
| X | | X O X X |
| X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 169 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
---
Tim Chow
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | O | |
| X | | O |
| X | | X O X X |
| X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 169 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
---
Tim Chow
ah....Clem
Sep 11, 2023, 2:45:37 PM9/11/23
to
But O also has two on the roof against a three point board and ten in
the zone.
I'll ship it here and make it O's problem. Regardless of whether it's a
take or not, many will get the take decision wrong. Seems like a take
to me due to the advanced anchor and the possibility of making a second
anchor. And the buried checkers of course.
D/T.
--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.
Timothy Chow
Sep 13, 2023, 9:43:24 AM9/13/23
to
are not easy to assess IMO. I thought this was a pass, but XG thinks
that (among other things) X's back checkers are contained enough to
give O and easy take. See the variant below for comparison.
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 64.16% (G:37.07% B:1.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.84% (G:9.45% B:0.52%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.21% (G:37.37% B:1.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.79% (G:9.84% B:0.55%)
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.735 (-0.105)
Double/Take: +0.839
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.161)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.016 (+0.719..+0.751)
Confidence Double: ± 0.023 (+0.816..+0.862)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=bBB--cB-D---AB--abAcb-bA--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | O | |
| X | | O |
| X | | X O X X |
| X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 169 X-O: 0-0
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | O | |
| X | | O |
| X | | X O X X |
| X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
X on roll, cube action
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.17% (G:37.47% B:1.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.83% (G:8.65% B:0.54%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.39% (G:37.93% B:1.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.61% (G:8.95% B:0.55%)
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.824 (-0.150)
Double/Take: +0.974
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.026)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.016 (+0.809..+0.840)
Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.953..+0.995)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
MK
Sep 14, 2023, 4:48:37 AM9/14/23
to
On September 13, 2023 at 7:43:24 AM UTC-6, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=bBB--cB-D---AB--ab-cbAbA--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> There are a lot of factors to weigh in this position...
> XGID=bBB--cB-D---AB--ab-cbAbA--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Since you "gave me the math" "21^7 < 2^32 < 21^8"
I no longer bother with factors to weigh, etc. I just
deduce the seed after 8-9 roll and wham! :)
MK
Stick Rice
Sep 27, 2023, 5:59:30 PM9/27/23
to
Stick
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