Not-so-early blitz cube 2

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=a--B-aCBB---dB---baeB-a-B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O X X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 168 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[Renan Moritz]

That is a double for sure, a 2nd O checker will go to the bar, and anything that "hits-is not hit back" on X 5-point would be catastrophic for O.
On the other hand there is still a lot of work to be done and X board is not that strong
D/easy take
Regards,

[ah....Clem]

Nine in the zone is a weak blitz. But X has three blots to shoot at -
2s and 6s hit plus X can hit loose with a 1 or a 3, so the blitz threat
is higher than nine in the zone would indicate.

Can O take? X is still on the ace point and is behind in the race. If O
can anchor on the GP she's right back in the game.

Looks like D/T. Too many market losers to be TG.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

[Timothy Chow]

Like Renan, I thought this was a clear take, with only nine checkers
in the zone, two home-board points made, and four checkers still in
O's home board. But XG says this is a big pass! In part, this is
because even if X misses, it's not so easy for O to clean up her
blots. In the variant, I have moved a spare from O's 6pt to her 8pt,
which you might not think makes that big a difference, but according
to XG, it turns the position into a borderline take/pass.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 67.67% (G:34.84% B:3.98%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.33% (G:6.97% B:0.36%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.83% (G:35.56% B:4.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.17% (G:7.12% B:0.35%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.852 (-0.148)
Double/Take: +1.100 (+0.100)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.837..+0.866)
Confidence Double: ± 0.022 (+1.077..+1.122)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=a--B-aCBB---dB---cadB-a-B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O X X |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 168 O: 155 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 65.99% (G:34.01% B:3.78%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.01% (G:7.29% B:0.34%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.15% (G:34.26% B:4.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.85% (G:7.16% B:0.33%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.807 (-0.184)
Double/Take: +0.991
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.009)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.792..+0.822)
Confidence Double: ± 0.022 (+0.969..+1.014)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

[Stick Rice]

One should also look at variants where we have the 21pt instead of the 20pt as our anchor. The original position is so strong because even when things go badly we can't be hurt. The 20pt anchor keeps the position locked up until we feel like conceding that aspect of our game.

Stick