3-away/3-away cube action

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=aB-BAaC----BbEb-ab-bbb----:0:0:1:00:4:4:0:7:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:4 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O |
| X O O | | O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 148 X-O: 4-4/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

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Tim Chow

[atila...@gmail.com]

25 Mayıs 2022 Çarşamba tarihinde saat 15:51:04 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:

X has 3 inner points, can make the fourth and O is on the bar. I think the chance of winning a gammon is 25-30 percent. All this is enough to double the cube.
From O’s point of view: the distribution of X in the outfield isn't perfect. His homeboard is more powerful than X has and these two factors may be a valid reason to accept the cube. I am not sure.
But if my opponent is better than me, I wouldn't hesitate to take it OTB. Because there is a very volatile position.

[Timothy Chow]

X has ten checkers in the zone and has escaped both of his back
checkers. He has a huge 30-pip lead. I would have dropped this
for money, and at 3-away/3-away the drop seemed even clearer.
But XG takes this! I was amazed. It seems that O's strong board
gives her just enough counterchances. X might not clean up his
blot on the 4pt, and even if he does, he'll be a bit cautious of
hitting loose because a return hit could turn the game around.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 64.06% (G:30.69% B:0.51%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.94% (G:8.30% B:0.56%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.66% (G:32.71% B:0.85%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.34% (G:8.26% B:0.65%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.717 (-0.220)
Double/Take: +0.937
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.063)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.705..+0.729)
Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+0.917..+0.957)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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Tim Chow