Money session. Score X-O: 0-0
O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| X O X O O | | O X |
| X O O O | | O X |
| O | | O X | S
| | | | n
| | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | | | i
| | | X | e
| X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 164 O: 139 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1
Double/take. No qualms for either decision. Nor much thought either : this
looks like a fairly standard middle game double where I would tend to
double or take on autopilot.
O is better on every aspect, but not overwhelmingly better ; he has some
big threats (hitting on the 4pt and not being hit back). This is a good
time to double.
X cannot be blitzed and has chances to get a better anchor. He is unlikely
to be primed. The gammon risk does not look dissuading. He should take.
I think O should hold. The only crushing market losers are when O
points on the 4 blot and X dances -- not enough for a double.
O has problems releasing the men on 21. X has prospects of anchoring
on the 4 point. An acepoint game is not so bad and X will have plenty
of opportunities to hit O. Even with no further contact, O is not so
far behind in the race -- just 66 behind which O has plenty of rolls to
get.
No double. However, I don't believe doubling would be a blunder.
Paul Epstein
Perhaps if you double these positions, you ought to experiment with
doubling a bit later. Hitting on the 4 point and not being hit back
still gives X plenty of chances to win -- O hasn't lost its market by
so much in this variation.
Bad idea to double when there's so few prospects of significant market
losers -- O should hold.
My gut said No Double/Take. get ready with that cube, but don't turn it
yet.
--Deron
Paul Epstein
If O makes the 4 point, 1:3, 1:4 and 1:5 by X look about as bad as
dancing. On the other hand, after a loose hit, only 1:5 plays poorly.
Moreover, 1:1 (5/4*(2) 8/7(2)) and 6:6 are very strong for O as well.
The standard double/take middlegame you're referring to occurs when O's
men on the 21 point are released, on the 17 point for example. Even
then, it's an easy take.
Note that none of the market losers you refer to are completely
crushing. In the absolute worst case, X has a very viable ace-point
game.
Paul Epstein
What do they say? Seems to me that
> up 25 pips with a
> better board
> better anchor
> fewer back
> and a pointing/priming threat
with a few market losers ought to be enough to double, however easy the
take is.
I did think the hold was clear, and am surprised that Raccoon
disagrees. This disagreement has made me less confident about the
hold.
I was hoping to resolve this through a reference position in Robertie's
501 (I'm keeping to the no-bot spirit for now) but this was no help at
all. There are positions which fall broadly in the same category but
his double/takes are much stronger for the favourite and his holds are
much weaker. This one falls somewhere in the middle.
>From the position alone, I class it as a definite hold. However, it
does give pause for thought when a strong player like Raccoon says
something different.
Paul Epstein
Money session. Score X-O: 0-0
O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| X O X O O | | O X |
| X O O O | | O X |
| O | | O X | S
| | | | n
| | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | | | i
| | | X | e
| X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 164 O: 139 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1
3-Ply Money equity: 0,481
1,6% 23,4% 65,7% 34,3% 7,9% 0,4%
1. Double, take 0,712
2. No double 0,686 (-0,027)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,288)
Proper cube action: Double, take
------------------------------ End ----------------------------------
Money session. Score X-O: 0-0
O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| X O X O O | | O X |
| X O O O | | O X |
| O | | O X | S
| | | | n
| | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | | | i
| | | X | e
| X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 164 O: 139 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1
Rollout Money equity: 0,432
0,7% 25,2% 63,1% 36,9% 8,5% 0,4%
Rollout settings:
Full rollout, 1 games,
played 3-ply (standard), cube 3-ply,
settlement 0,550 at 16 pts,
seed 1, without race database.
Evaluations
1. No double 0,620
2. Double, take 0,595 (-0,025)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,380)
Proper cube action: No double, take 6%
Live cube
1. No double 0,794
2. Double, take 0,594 (-0,199)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,206)
Proper cube action: No double, take 49%
------------------------------ End ----------------------------------
1 game?
/Micke
"Raccoon" <racg...@yahoo.com> skrev i meddelandet
news:1128450768.6...@g47g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
/Micke
"Grunty" <grunti...@yahoo.com> skrev i meddelandet
news:1128476855.7...@g49g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
Money session. Score X-O: 0-0
O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| X O X O O | | O X |
| X O O O | | O X |
| O | | O X | S
| | | | n
| | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | | | i
| | | X | e
| X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 164 O: 139 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1
Rollout Money equity: 0,523
2,2% 23,4% 67,1% 32,9% 7,3% 0,3%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0,523 ą0,023,
- live cube no double: 0,746 ą0,036,
- live cube double take: 0,796 ą0,057.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
324 games (equiv. 12158 games),
played 3-ply (standard), cube 3-ply,
settlement 0,550 at 16 pts,
seed 1, without race database.
Evaluations
1. Double, take 0,806
2. No double 0,734 (-0,072)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,194)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Live cube
1. Double, take 0,796
2. No double 0,746 (-0,050)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,204)