Late blitz cube action

Timothy Chow

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Aug 27, 2023, 9:52:23 AM8/27/23

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XGID=aB-BaBC-A-------BA-ccBacc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O X O O O |
| X | | O O X O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 91 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

ah....Clem

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Aug 30, 2023, 9:31:20 PM8/30/23

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On 8/27/2023 9:52 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=aB-BaBC-A-------BA-ccBacc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-

> |          X X    |   | O O X O O O |
> |          X       |   | O O X     O O |
> |                  |   | O O        O O |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |BAR|                  |
> |                  | O |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   | X                | +---+
> |                  |   | X X     X     X | | 2 |
> |             X    |   | X X O X     X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 135 O: 91 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action

O's 16 dancing rolls seem like market losers, but X still has work to do
to bring this one home and if O anchors she's right back in the game,
maybe ahead.

So, I'll ship it, and O probably has to eat this one. R/T.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Timothy Chow

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Sep 12, 2023, 9:22:11 AM9/12/23

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It's going to take X a while to get more ammunition around the board
to complete a closeout, so I thought O had a take here. But XG says
it's a big pass. Again, I have a tendency to underestimate how bad
dead checkers are; see the variant below.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 71.75% (G:26.42% B:0.91%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.25% (G:10.51% B:0.25%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.59% (G:27.37% B:1.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.41% (G:11.32% B:0.45%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.836 (-0.164)
Redouble/Take: +1.085 (+0.085)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.829..+0.843)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+1.069..+1.101)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aB-BaBC-A-------BA-dcBacb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O X O O O |
| X | | O O X O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 135 O: 96 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 69.69% (G:25.05% B:0.85%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.31% (G:10.85% B:0.29%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.75% (G:26.52% B:0.98%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.25% (G:11.98% B:0.50%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.797 (-0.182)
Redouble/Take: +0.978
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.022)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.789..+0.804)
Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.963..+0.993)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

MK

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Sep 14, 2023, 4:27:08 AM9/14/23

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On September 12, 2023 at 7:22:11 AM UTC-6, Timothy Chow wrote:

> XGID=aB-BaBC-A-------BA-ccBacc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

> X on roll, cube action

> It's going to take X a while to get more...

> Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

The incorrect but best play here is No-redouble.

Ex-Gee is using 32-bit Mersenne Twister RNG and
applies modulo 6 to produce dice rolls.

I've used your "given math" "21^7 < 2^32 < 21^8" to
deduce the seed after 8-9 rolls and saw that Ex will
roll a 22 for you next, with subsequent rolls giving
you a gammon. So, play on... ;)

MK