Hit or run?

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=-a---aE-C---dFa--b-d-b--A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| 6 | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

[Timothy Chow]

Variant 1 below is the variant I had prepared. Then I checked my
files and I discovered that four years ago, I encountered a position
(Variant 2) over the board that was very similar to Variant 1. Back
then I played 13/5*, and this time around I played 24/16.

1. Rollout¹ 13/5* eq:-0.267
Player: 44.21% (G:10.87% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 55.79% (G:18.25% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.024 (-0.292..-0.243) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/16 eq:-0.346 (-0.078)
Player: 43.00% (G:7.96% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 57.00% (G:20.08% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.359..-0.332) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-a---aE-C---dF---c-d-b--A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |

| X | | O |
| 6 | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 156 O: 152 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 24/16 eq:-0.270
Player: 44.85% (G:6.95% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 55.15% (G:17.36% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.279..-0.262) - [99.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/5* eq:-0.291 (-0.021)
Player: 43.74% (G:10.52% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 56.26% (G:18.18% B:0.72%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.302..-0.280) - [0.2%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-a---aE-C---dF---c-db---A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |

| X | | O |
| 6 | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 156 O: 154 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 24/16 eq:-0.289
Player: 44.68% (G:7.53% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 55.32% (G:18.30% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.302..-0.275) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/5* eq:-0.371 (-0.082)
Player: 41.95% (G:9.97% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 58.05% (G:18.00% B:0.81%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.386..-0.357) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow