Something has to give

Timothy Chow

unread,

Jun 1, 2023, 7:48:54 AM6/1/23

to

XGID=-Bb-DBB-B---b-----BbbbcbA-:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X X O X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

Timothy Chow

unread,

Jun 3, 2023, 7:58:15 AM6/3/23

to

I made the play that I thought would minimize shots: 8/7 8/4. But
O will hit on her ace point with a 2, so 18/17 18/14 duplicates 2's,
as well as O's 5's to escape her back checkers. It still looks
dangerous to expose two new blots rather than one, but at least
X keeps his 8pt asset, and creates some root numbers. After 18/17
18/14, consider what happens if O rolls 64 63 43 31, or even 61.
After 8/7 8/4, the only roll for O that I would consider to be an
anti-joker is 31.

It would be a different story if O's spare on her 3pt were on her
midpoint instead. See the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 18/17 18/14 eq:-0.532
Player: 31.93% (G:10.00% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 68.07% (G:37.11% B:2.18%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.541..-0.524) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/4 eq:-0.705 (-0.173)
Player: 26.82% (G:8.36% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 73.18% (G:41.40% B:1.49%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.713..-0.697) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/13 eq:-0.745 (-0.212)
Player: 26.73% (G:8.23% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 73.27% (G:43.62% B:2.66%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.753..-0.737) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 5/4 5/1 eq:-0.756 (-0.223)
Player: 23.88% (G:4.81% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 76.12% (G:35.88% B:1.19%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.763..-0.748) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-Bb-DBB-B---c-----BbbbbbA-:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X | +---+

| O X | | X X X O X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 116 O: 125 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/4 eq:-0.690
Player: 26.18% (G:7.58% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 73.82% (G:37.18% B:1.47%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.698..-0.682) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 5/4 5/1 eq:-0.728 (-0.037)
Player: 24.85% (G:5.11% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 75.15% (G:35.76% B:1.43%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.736..-0.720) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/17 18/14 eq:-0.785 (-0.095)
Player: 24.06% (G:6.23% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 75.94% (G:39.92% B:2.41%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.793..-0.777) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 18/13 eq:-0.792 (-0.102)
Player: 24.00% (G:6.17% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 76.00% (G:40.16% B:2.47%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.800..-0.785) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

ah....Clem

unread,

Jun 3, 2023, 2:16:33 PM6/3/23

to

I second checker back leads to a lot of gammon losses, so bold play is
not indicated. O has a lot of awkward rolls too, so I'll just minimize
shots by clearing the five point.

Yeah it's the chicken play. Bwok Bwok.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.