Early blitz cube

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=aa--aBEAA---dC-A-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 157 O: 176 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[peps...@gmail.com]

A fairly confident D/T from me.
Pointing on the four point checker, followed
by an opponent's dance is a market loser.
This isn't close to the Haganite 25% (even the dance
component alone is only 25%) but I know from
experience of watching XG that that is enough for a
cube turn.
With only a 2 point board, and with needing to escape
2 rear checkers, I can't drop this.
Clear double, clear take.

[Timothy Chow]

X has 9 checkers in the zone with the 5pt made, and has a big lead
in the pip count. It's true that X has only two home-board points
made and O has good chances of anchoring, but I thought that the
take/pass decision was borderline. But XG says it's a very clear
take. It makes a significant difference how X's 9 checkers in the
zone are distributed. In the variant below, X has priming potential
as well as blitzing potential, and XG judges it to be much closer
to a pass.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 65.54% (G:30.78% B:2.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.46% (G:8.43% B:0.55%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.46% (G:31.22% B:2.22%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.54% (G:8.52% B:0.59%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.748 (-0.079)
Double/Take: +0.827
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.173)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.734..+0.762)
Confidence Double: ± 0.024 (+0.803..+0.851)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aa--aBDAB---dC-A-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |

| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |

| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 159 O: 176 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 68.52% (G:29.44% B:2.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.48% (G:7.13% B:0.37%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.24% (G:30.76% B:2.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.76% (G:7.32% B:0.38%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.833 (-0.141)
Double/Take: +0.974
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.026)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.016 (+0.817..+0.849)
Confidence Double: ± 0.024 (+0.950..+0.998)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

[peps...@gmail.com]

I think there's an ambiguity in the word "clear" here.
What? You mean the English language contains ambiguities?
How inconceivably shocking!

If clear means that the equity loss from the wrong decision is large,
then yes, we have clarity. However, if "clear" means "obvious to
any serious player", then a large number of 0.83 takes are unclear.

So you thought the decision was borderline. But did you see it as a borderline pass
or a borderline take? And if the cube was offered to you, did you take it?
Was it one of those where you didn't have much of a clue but guessed the take
and guessed correctly?

Paul

[Timothy Chow]

On 12/21/2023 12:41 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Thursday, December 21, 2023 at 2:38:43 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:

[...]

>> But XG says it's a very clear take.

[...]

> If clear means that the equity loss from the wrong decision is large,
> then yes, we have clarity. However, if "clear" means "obvious to
> any serious player", then a large number of 0.83 takes are unclear.

What I said was that "XG says it's a very clear take." I try
to avoid assertions that some play is "correct" or "clear"
simpliciter; if you read my posts carefully, you'll see that
I almost always use some locution such as, "the top play in
the rollout" or "XG says that..."

> So you thought the decision was borderline. But did you see it as a borderline pass
> or a borderline take? And if the cube was offered to you, did you take it?

I passed. X was leading 6-away/7-away which can sometimes tip
gammonish cubes from D/T to D/P, but not here.

---
Tim Chow