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Mar 21, 2023, 8:25:42 AMMar 21

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XGID=---BaBBBB-A-cBaa---cbbb-B-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game

+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| X O O | | O O O O X |

| X | | O O O O X |

| | | O |

| | | |

| | | |

| |BAR| |

| | | |

| | | |

| O | | | +---+

| O X X | | X X X | | 2 |

| O X X X | | X X O X | +---+

+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 142 O: 123 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, X own cube

X to play 21

---

Tim Chow

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game

+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| X O O | | O O O O X |

| X | | O O O O X |

| | | O |

| | | |

| | | |

| |BAR| |

| | | |

| | | |

| O | | | +---+

| O X X | | X X X | | 2 |

| O X X X | | X X O X | +---+

+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 142 O: 123 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, X own cube

X to play 21

---

Tim Chow

Mar 21, 2023, 10:49:12 AMMar 21

to

Here goes.

7/4.

Bob

Mar 23, 2023, 9:13:49 AMMar 23

to

likely is the attack to succeed? O's outfield blots are helpful

to X in this regard. In Variant 1 below, those blots have been

cleaned up, and 7/4* is a bit less effective. However, it's only

in Variant 2 below that XG decides that 7/4* is not best. Note

that the safe play 10/7 has about the same equity in all three

rollouts, and it's the plays 13/10 and 7/4* that swing considerably

from variant to variant.

1. Rollout¹ 7/4* eq:-0.362

Player: 36.33% (G:11.07% B:0.52%)

Opponent: 63.67% (G:29.49% B:4.33%)

Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.373..-0.352) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/7 eq:-0.441 (-0.078)

Player: 29.33% (G:6.60% B:0.24%)

Opponent: 70.67% (G:18.94% B:1.35%)

Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.448..-0.433) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/23 10/8 eq:-0.443 (-0.081)

Player: 31.80% (G:8.13% B:0.39%)

Opponent: 68.20% (G:26.92% B:1.00%)

Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.452..-0.434) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/10 eq:-0.477 (-0.114)

Player: 29.85% (G:6.80% B:0.42%)

Opponent: 70.15% (G:23.23% B:2.16%)

Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.486..-0.468) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.

Dice Seed: 271828

Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------

Variant 1

---------

XGID=---BaBBBB-A-cBb----cbbb-B-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game

+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| X O | | O O O O X |

| | | O |

| | | |

| | | |

| |BAR| |

| | | |

| | | |

| O | | | +---+

| O X X | | X X X | | 2 |

| O X X X | | X X O X | +---+

+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 142 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
| | | |

| | | |

| |BAR| |

| | | |

| | | |

| O | | | +---+

| O X X | | X X X | | 2 |

| O X X X | | X X O X | +---+

+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Cube: 2, X own cube

X to play 21

1. Rollout¹ 7/4* eq:-0.382
X to play 21

Player: 35.53% (G:9.92% B:0.36%)

Opponent: 64.47% (G:29.40% B:4.18%)

Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.393..-0.370) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/23 10/8 eq:-0.427 (-0.046)

Player: 31.72% (G:8.20% B:0.34%)

Opponent: 68.28% (G:25.19% B:0.80%)

Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.435..-0.419) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/7 eq:-0.444 (-0.062)

Player: 29.30% (G:6.85% B:0.23%)

Opponent: 70.70% (G:18.79% B:1.26%)

Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.451..-0.436) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/10 eq:-0.446 (-0.065)

Player: 30.90% (G:7.21% B:0.34%)

Opponent: 69.10% (G:23.33% B:2.19%)

Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.456..-0.437) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.

Dice Seed: 271828

Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------

Variant 2

---------

XGID=---BaBBB-BA-cBb----cbbb-B-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game

+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| X O | | O O O O X |

| | | O |

| | | |

| | | |

| |BAR| |

| | | |

| | | |

| O | | | +---+

| O X X | | X X X | | 2 |

| O X X X | | X X O X | +---+

+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 144 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
| | | |

| | | |

| |BAR| |

| | | |

| | | |

| O | | | +---+

| O X X | | X X X | | 2 |

| O X X X | | X X O X | +---+

+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Cube: 2, X own cube

X to play 21

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 eq:-0.412
X to play 21

Player: 32.25% (G:7.59% B:0.33%)

Opponent: 67.75% (G:23.09% B:2.35%)

Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.422..-0.402) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/7 eq:-0.441 (-0.029)

Player: 29.14% (G:6.86% B:0.25%)

Opponent: 70.86% (G:18.76% B:1.32%)

Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.450..-0.433) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/4* eq:-0.445 (-0.033)

Player: 33.95% (G:9.22% B:0.31%)

Opponent: 66.05% (G:30.49% B:4.40%)

Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.455..-0.435) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.

Dice Seed: 271828

Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---

Tim Chow

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