4-away/5-away cube action

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Timothy Chow

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May 15, 2022, 3:40:48 PMMay 15
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XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 3-2/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow
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atila...@gmail.com

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May 16, 2022, 2:17:47 PMMay 16
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15 Mayıs 2022 Pazar tarihinde saat 22:40:48 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
If I were X, I would double without hesitation. All doubles work well and he has an additional 6 rolls to make his bar point, 14 total. He has a good homeboard and enough builders outside.
For O, the conditions are different. Ok, it's not too bad, but the gammon value is quite high at 4a-5a.
The key point is that the mutual gammon values are high. and with two checkers behind there is a high risk

Timothy Chow

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May 17, 2022, 7:00:01 AMMay 17
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Generally speaking, a mutual holding game where you have a
marginally better anchor and there are no blots lying around
to be picked up, or a priming game in which you have a marginally
better prime, is not a double. But this position is not really
either of those; the salient feature is that O is still stuck on
X's ace point and is somewhat disconnected. There is a risk that
O will be saddled with an ace-point game, which would be a pass.
For money, XG says this is a double and an easy take.

What I was surprised by was that ATS, XG says this is a big pass.
It seems that the position is a lot more gammonish than I thought.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 69.03% (G:20.94% B:0.95%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.97% (G:6.39% B:0.29%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.24% (G:21.91% B:1.62%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.76% (G:6.81% B:0.57%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.903 (-0.097)
Double/Take: +1.162 (+0.162)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.897..+0.909)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+1.152..+1.172)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-----
Money
-----

XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 69.38% (G:21.06% B:0.72%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.62% (G:6.67% B:0.26%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.48% (G:21.83% B:0.69%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.52% (G:6.51% B:0.28%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.792 (-0.069)
Double/Take: +0.861
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.139)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.779..+0.805)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.844..+0.878)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

atila...@gmail.com

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May 17, 2022, 8:49:27 AMMay 17
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17 Mayıs 2022 Salı tarihinde saat 14:00:01 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
You're right, I was surprised too. I quickly looked at the scores one by one for the 7-point game. D/T looks correct on most scores (except 4a-5a, 4a-4a, 2a-? , 3a-?)
Maybe not enough to say gammonish. Even at the beginning of the game, the gammon percentage is about 15 percent. I hope I remember this position as an important reference.

Stick Rice

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May 18, 2022, 4:43:09 AMMay 18
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The take point AtS is higher than money. The GV is obviously much higher than money. This also isn't a position where I see a lot of value coming from owning the cube as the 5 away player.

Stick
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