Blitz versus prime cube action 3

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=a-DB-CC--a---A--AcbcbcA---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[ah....Clem]

Like the last two problems in this series, X has a bunch of market
losers that make me want to ship it. And enough difficulty springing
the runner that I don't think it's TG.

X has more time to shake a six than the last problem and a better board
so I'll go with pass here. Not sure about the take decision.

RD/P.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

[Timothy Chow]

It's possible that if I had fully absorbed the lessons of the
position "Blitz versus prime cube action 2" before I faced the
above position, I might have assessed it more accurately.
Comparing the two positions, O is better off in several ways.
She has only one checker on the bar and has no dead checkers
on her 1pt. On the other hand, X's structure is better too,
with only two semi-dead checkers on the 2pt, and plenty of
timing.

The rollout indicates a RD/P, but a borderline take/pass in
the variant where one of the spares on the 2pt is moved to
the 3pt.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 65.69% (G:27.98% B:0.37%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.31% (G:6.30% B:0.33%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.28% (G:27.48% B:0.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.72% (G:6.31% B:0.31%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.747 (-0.090)
Redouble/Take: +0.837
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.163)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.739..+0.755)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.823..+0.851)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=a-CC-CC--a---A--AcbcbcA---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 99 O: 119 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 67.78% (G:30.64% B:0.40%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.22% (G:5.77% B:0.29%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.19% (G:30.88% B:0.40%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.81% (G:5.86% B:0.31%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.812 (-0.188)
Redouble/Take: +1.008 (+0.008)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.805..+0.819)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.996..+1.020)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow