Play safe?

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=-bbGaBD-B--a-------b-babb-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 7 |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X O O |
| O X | | X X O X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 71 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 31

---
Tim Chow

[ah....Clem]

I've been dinged a lot for failing to hit is positions like this. O's
board is weak and there's a homeboard blot to shoot at.

8/4*

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

[Timothy Chow]

XG thinks that O's board is weak enough to justify taking some risk
to begin clearing our 8pt. But interestingly, while it is happy
with 8/5 6/5 or even 8/7 8/5, it hates 8/4*. I believe that the
reason is that even if O doesn't hit back immediately after 8/4*,
covering that blot is not easy, and even if we cover it, it is just
another point we have to clear. Playing against a backgame is quite
different from playing against a single anchor.

1. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:+0.205
Player: 54.93% (G:27.44% B:4.51%)
Opponent: 45.07% (G:1.83% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.190..+0.221) - [69.1%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/5 eq:+0.200 (-0.005)
Player: 54.94% (G:26.62% B:4.32%)
Opponent: 45.06% (G:1.45% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.186..+0.214) - [30.9%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/3 eq:+0.085 (-0.121)
Player: 51.73% (G:24.95% B:3.89%)
Opponent: 48.27% (G:2.60% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.069..+0.101) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/4* eq:-0.047 (-0.252)
Player: 48.49% (G:25.12% B:4.81%)
Opponent: 51.51% (G:7.91% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.065..-0.029) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-bbGaBD-B--a-------cbbb---:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |

| | | O | +---+

| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 7 |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X O O |
| O X | | X X O X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 71 O: 171 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/3 eq:-0.505
Player: 34.78% (G:17.58% B:3.27%)
Opponent: 65.22% (G:8.95% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.518..-0.492) - [97.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:-0.522 (-0.018)
Player: 35.41% (G:16.98% B:2.93%)
Opponent: 64.59% (G:10.14% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.535..-0.509) - [3.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/5 eq:-0.539 (-0.035)
Player: 34.86% (G:16.61% B:2.37%)
Opponent: 65.14% (G:10.67% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.550..-0.528) - [0.0%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

[Stick Rice]

It hates 8/4* not only because of the difficulty of covering it when missed but that play leaves two blots in the ether. Playing with one blot against a four, even five point board can be manageable but if you have two or more floating around out there you're going to have a rough time even when the opponent has 5 checkers back.

Stick