Move that back checker?

[Robert Zimmerman]

XGID=-aaCB-C---A--C--bcce-B-A--:1:-1:1:22:2:3:0:5:10

Score is X:2 O:3 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X | +---+
| X O O O | | O X | | 2 |
| X O O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 140 X-O: 2-3/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

[Timothy Chow]

I want to attack here, so I'd start with 3/1*. Then we could go
all out by switching points with 4/2*(2), but I don't think we have
enough ammunition in the zone for that. I'd bring down two more
checkers with 13/11(2). For the last 2, 23/21 gets ready to launch,
whereas the other 2's don't seem to accomplish much, so I'd try 23/21.

---
Tim Chow

[Robert Zimmerman]

XG goes full bore with 2 infield hits and leave the blot on 23 in place and brings down more ammo from the midpoint. I felt some urgency to getting that blot on 23 out of there.

Bob

XGID=-aaCB-C---A--C--bcce-B-A--:1:-1:1:22:2:3:0:5:10

Score is X:2 O:3 5 pt.(s) match.

+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X X O | | O O O X | +---+

| X O | | O O O X | | 2 |

| O | | O O X | +---+

| O | | |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | |
| X X X | | |

| O O X X X | | X |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip count X: 149 O: 140 X-O: 2-3/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 13/11 4/2*(2) 3/1* eq:+0.193
Player: 49.26% (G:21.79% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 50.74% (G:14.86% B:1.67%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.186..+0.199) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 01 second

2. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/2* 3/1* eq:+0.168 (-0.025)
Player: 49.23% (G:19.24% B:1.47%)
Opponent: 50.77% (G:19.04% B:2.47%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.161..+0.175) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 04 seconds

3. Rollout¹ 23/21 13/11(2) 3/1* eq:+0.143 (-0.050)
Player: 49.45% (G:16.15% B:1.10%)
Opponent: 50.55% (G:14.80% B:1.08%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.136..+0.149) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 19 seconds

4. Rollout¹ 23/21 4/2*(2) 3/1* eq:+0.137 (-0.056)
Player: 47.73% (G:19.12% B:0.62%)
Opponent: 52.27% (G:14.82% B:1.22%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.130..+0.143) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[Timothy Chow]

On 3/24/2023 1:55 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
> XG goes full bore with 2 infield hits and leave the blot on 23 in place and brings down more ammo from the midpoint. I felt some urgency to getting that blot on 23 out of there.

That's interesting that XG thinks there's enough ammo in the zone to
support the all-out blitzing play. Below is a variant that I found
interesting.

XGID=-aaCB-C-----AC--bcce-B-A--:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game

+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X | +---+
| X O O O | | O X | | 2 |
| X O O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 151 O: 140 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 23/21 13/11(2) 3/1* eq:-0.203
Player: 48.76% (G:15.47% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 51.24% (G:12.57% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.215..-0.191) - [96.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/11 4/2*(2) 3/1* eq:-0.219 (-0.017)
Player: 47.42% (G:19.38% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 52.58% (G:14.42% B:0.78%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.231..-0.207) - [2.6%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 12/10 3/1* eq:-0.220 (-0.018)
Player: 48.61% (G:16.69% B:0.55%)
Opponent: 51.39% (G:14.34% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.231..-0.209) - [1.4%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.

Dice Seed: 271828

Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow