See. Blot. Must. Hit.

[Tim Chow]

XGID=---ba-EBDa--bB---a-bbbAb-A:0:0:1:43:0:0:1:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Money session, Jacoby
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pipcount X: 149 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube : 1
X to play 43

---
Tim Chow

[Bradley K. Sherman]

Tim Chow <tchow...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>Score is X:0 O:0. Money session, Jacoby
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O X O |
> | X | | O O O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | X | | X |
> | X | | X |
> | O X X | | X O |
> | O O X X | | X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

> X:149 O:149, Cube:1, X to play 43

[Note to self, man on bar.]
Bar/22,8/4*
Position sucks, but breaking midpoint sucks more.
(If 6/2 is correct, I'm giving up backgammon for 72 hours.)

--bks

[badgolferman]

Bar/22, 13/9.

[peps...@gmail.com]

6/2 eschewing the hit while O has a much stronger board and waiting for a better opportunity.

Paul

[Walt]

After entering, there are only 4 choices. We can dismiss bar/18 right away.

Then it's a choice of hitting on the 9, hitting on the 4, and dumping a
checker on the 2. I don't like stripping the midpoint, and I'm not far
enough ahead in the race to dump. That leaves hitting on the 4 - this
slots a valuable homeboard point, unstacks the bloated 6-point, and puts
a checker on the roof. Since we own an anchor, hitting loose should be
sound. The loose hit leaves 17 shots (any 4 plus 2-1) while hitting on
the 9 leaves shots with any 5, 6 or 1 other than 66 or 11 - that should
be 25 if I counted right.

bar/22 8/4*

[crf]

bar/22, 8/4. Take away half a roll from O to clean up lose blots and perhaps just as important, put 'em where you want 'em: X needs boardage, but the 2 point isn't a lot of use.

[Freeven]

On 5/18/2013 6:28 PM, Tim Chow wrote:

I'm not at all sure, but I would play 6/2. X's best asset, other than
his newly-made anchor, is his standing in the race, such that it is. Any
other play risks quite a lot. O has problems of his own here, with a lot
of real estate to traverse to get home. It takes a lot of pressure off
of him if I'm on the bar while he's scrambling. I'm not happy about
playing behind his anchor, but that fifth checker on the 6pt isn't doing
me any good where it is anyway. I need to be making some home points so
any hits I get later will have some teeth to them. The 2pt wouldn't be
my first choice, but it's still an asset.

[Tim Chow]

I chose to hit 8/4* but according to the computer, that is too bold a
play when O's board is so strong. O's board needs to be weaker for X
to contemplate hitting (see variant below).

====
XGR+
====

1. XG Roller+ Bar/22 6/2 eq:-0.167
Player : 46.31% (G:11.15% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 53.69% (G:15.14% B:0.57%)

2. XG Roller+ Bar/22 8/4* eq:-0.259 (-0.092)
Player : 43.80% (G:10.73% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 56.20% (G:15.73% B:0.65%)

3. XG Roller+ Bar/22 13/9* eq:-0.482 (-0.315)
Player : 39.44% (G:8.77% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 60.56% (G:20.30% B:0.86%)

=======
Variant
=======

XGID=---ba-EBDa--bB---a-cbbAa-A:1:1:1:43:0:0:1:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Money session

+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X O |
| X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |

| X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X O | | 2 |
| O O X X | | X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pipcount X: 149 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
Cube : 2, X own cube
X to play 43

1. Rollout: Bar/22 8/4* eq:+0.102
Player : 46.71% (G:12.92% B:0.76%)
Opponent: 53.29% (G:15.65% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.087<E<+0.117)

2. Rollout: Bar/22 6/2 eq:+0.084 (-0.018)
Player : 46.64% (G:11.37% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 53.36% (G:14.78% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.068<E<+0.100)

3. Rollout: Bar/22 13/9* eq:+0.055 (-0.047)
Player : 45.22% (G:13.35% B:0.82%)
Opponent: 54.78% (G:16.80% B:0.73%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (+0.036<E<+0.074)

1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

---
Tim Chow

[Bradley K. Sherman]

Tim Chow <tchow...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> 1. XG Roller+ Bar/22 6/2 eq:-0.167

> 2. XG Roller+ Bar/22 8/4* eq:-0.259 (-0.092)

> 3. XG Roller+ Bar/22 13/9* eq:-0.482 (-0.315)

Hmmm. If I saw someone make that play I would be thinking "weak
player." Recalibrating ...

--bks