Blitz vs. prime, sort of

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=aABBCCA-----c---abbdb-AAA-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X X X | +---+
| O O | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

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Tim Chow

[Timothy Chow]

After covering the 1pt, I thought it was more important to step
up to the edge of the prime than to lift the blot on the 6pt, but
XG disagrees. Stepping up gives us a good 5, but 6/5 (in addition
to cleaning up the blot, obviously) kills 5's. But see the variant,
where XG steps up.

1. Rollout¹ 6/1 eq:-0.232
Player: 45.06% (G:23.90% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 54.94% (G:12.56% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.244..-0.221) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/21 5/1 eq:-0.302 (-0.069)
Player: 42.05% (G:22.58% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 57.95% (G:15.07% B:0.84%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.312..-0.292) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 23/22 5/1 eq:-0.348 (-0.116)
Player: 40.62% (G:21.32% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 59.38% (G:14.44% B:0.55%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.358..-0.339) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aABBCCA-----c--a-bbdb-AAA-:0:0:1:41:0:1:1:2:10

Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.

+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X X X |
| O O | | O O |
| | | O |

| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 113 O: 138 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 22/21 5/1 eq:+0.242
Player: 41.43% (G:20.68% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 58.57% (G:11.93% B:0.86%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.236..+0.248) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/1 eq:+0.191 (-0.051)
Player: 40.94% (G:18.59% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 59.06% (G:9.66% B:0.58%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.184..+0.197) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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Tim Chow