Break anchor or dump? 2

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=--B-bCCCB---b-----bd-Babb-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O X O O O |
| O | | O X O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O X |
| O X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

[Stick Rice]

For me it's not a question of breaking anchor or dumping, it's a question of within the correct play which version of it is correct?

Stick

[ah....Clem]

Race is even, O is stuck behind a four prime, and has a bunch of buried
checkers. An exchange of hits favors X and keeping the prime seems thematic.

It's possible to keep the prime while dumping, but breaking anchor seems
better. 21/13

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

[Timothy Chow]

X has only a slight race lead after this roll, and O has an inflexible
position, which might force her to leave a blot soon. X's dumping plays
are a bit ugly but don't completely kill any checkers. The rollout says
that running 21/13 is a whopper with cheese.

To create a variant where XG runs requires a significant change to the
position. In Variant 1, O has a second blot in her board. In Variant 2,
I have changed the roll to 64 *and* moved one of O's spares to her
midpoint.

1. Rollout¹ 7/2 6/3 eq:+0.151
Player: 55.09% (G:8.90% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 44.91% (G:6.67% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.142..+0.161) - [98.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/3 eq:+0.137 (-0.015)
Player: 54.69% (G:9.07% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 45.31% (G:5.86% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.128..+0.145) - [1.4%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/3 6/3 eq:+0.126 (-0.025)
Player: 53.92% (G:11.94% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 46.08% (G:6.01% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.117..+0.136) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/1 5/2 eq:+0.104 (-0.047)
Player: 53.30% (G:9.08% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 46.70% (G:7.50% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.094..+0.115) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 7/2 5/2 eq:+0.086 (-0.065)
Player: 52.57% (G:8.07% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 47.43% (G:7.23% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.077..+0.096) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 21/13 eq:+0.018 (-0.133)
Player: 52.14% (G:11.70% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 47.86% (G:14.49% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.009..+0.028) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 21/16 6/3 eq:-0.042 (-0.194)
Player: 50.45% (G:13.02% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 49.55% (G:19.21% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.054..-0.031) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=--B-bCCCB---b-----bcaBabb-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| O | | O O X O O O |

| O | | O X O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |

| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O X |
| O X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 116 O: 114 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 21/13 eq:+0.182
Player: 56.28% (G:10.95% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 43.72% (G:12.03% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.174..+0.189) - [76.1%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/3 6/3 eq:+0.178 (-0.004)
Player: 54.54% (G:12.98% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 45.46% (G:7.06% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.171..+0.185) - [21.8%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/3 eq:+0.172 (-0.009)
Player: 54.99% (G:11.77% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 45.01% (G:7.52% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.165..+0.180) - [2.1%]

4. Rollout¹ 7/2 6/3 eq:+0.153 (-0.028)
Player: 54.39% (G:11.09% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 45.61% (G:8.41% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.146..+0.160) - [0.0%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=--B-bCCCB---c-----bc-Babb-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O X O O O |
| O | | O X O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |

| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X |

| O X X | | X X O X |
| O X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 116 O: 122 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 21/11 eq:+0.304
Player: 59.19% (G:12.18% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 40.81% (G:8.68% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.293..+0.314) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/1 5/1 eq:+0.248 (-0.056)
Player: 57.96% (G:10.73% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 42.04% (G:6.90% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.238..+0.257) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow