22 to play

[Walt]

XGID=---Bb-DAB---bDb-ac-d---AaA:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 148 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 22

What to do with these ducks?

--
//Walt

[Tim Chow]

One obvious option is to make our bar. The bar point isn't all that
valuable by itself when O has an advanced anchor, but 13/7 does have
the advantage of leaving no shots. However, I'm not sure that getting
hit is our biggest worry here. We have the stronger board and O has a
blot in her table. With all of O's outfield builders, I'm more
concerned about getting primed. Bar/21 23/21 feels better to me for
that reason. Then 7/5 seems like the natural last 2; O's 1's are
somewhat duplicated.

---
Tim Chow

[Bradley K. Sherman]

Walt <walt_...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O | | O X O |
> | X O O | | O |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X O X |
> | O X X | | X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

>Pip count X: 153 O: 148 X-O: 0-0/5, Cube:1, X to play 22

13/7,13/11

--bks

[Stick]

You're on the bar Bradley.

On May 31, 11:50 pm, b...@panix.com (Bradley K. Sherman) wrote:

[Paul]

Like Tim I make the 21 point. But unlike Tim, I play 13/11 for my
final 2.
This leaves more shots and leaves a slightly less valuable point
slotted than Tim's play.

However, the upside (compared to TimChow) is that my play leaves a
more flexible distribution for making future points.
Tim's play (when compared to mine) stakes a lot on getting the ace to
cover the 5 blot next turn. Even if, with Tim's play, X covers the 5
blot with a 3, that leaves a blot on X's 8 point.

Paul Epstein

[badgolferman]

I'll just play the conventional Bar/23, 13/7.

[Bradley K. Sherman]

Walt <walt_...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O | | O X O |
> | X O O | | O |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X O X |
> | O X X | | X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

>Pip count X: 153 O: 148 X-O: 0-0/5, Cube:1, X to play 22

Correction (thanks, Stick):
Bar/23,23/21(2),7/5.

--bks

[Bradley K. Sherman]

Stick <check...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>You're on the bar Bradley.
>

Ouch! And I wasn't even at the bar. Corrected in alternate post.

--bks

[Walt]

Making the advanced anchor is correct here, with 13/11 barely edging 7/5
for the final deuce.

Making the 23 point and bar point is a double whopper with cheese.

XGID=---Bb-DAB---bDb-ac-d---AaA:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:5:10

1. Rolloutš Bar/21 23/21 13/11 eq:-0.014
Player: 49.63% (G:10.10% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 50.37% (G:9.75% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ą0.012 (-0.026..-0.002) - [97.7%]
Duration: 23 minutes 00 second

2. Rolloutš Bar/21 23/21 7/5 eq:-0.031 (-0.017)
Player: 49.10% (G:10.25% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 50.90% (G:9.90% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ą0.012 (-0.042..-0.019) - [2.3%]
Duration: 18 minutes 37 seconds

3. Rolloutš Bar/21 13/11(2) eq:-0.207 (-0.193)
Player: 46.14% (G:10.92% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 53.86% (G:16.98% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ą0.013 (-0.221..-0.194) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 59 seconds

4. Rolloutš Bar/23 13/7 eq:-0.263 (-0.249)
Player: 44.66% (G:9.59% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 55.34% (G:15.58% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ą0.011 (-0.275..-0.252) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 27 seconds



š 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

--
//Walt