On Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 2:49:34 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
Ultra-marginal.
So what prize do I win?
The prize for the most marginal take/pass decision in
a contact position in a money game.
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 69.85% (G:19.88% B:0.48%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.15% (G:6.84% B:0.28%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.03% (G:20.64% B:0.56%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.97% (G:8.80% B:0.48%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.529, Double=+1.120
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.748 (-0.250)
Redouble/Take: +0.998
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.002)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.745..+0.752)
Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+0.989..+1.007)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 65.3%
Duration: 10 minutes 12 seconds