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peps...@gmail.com

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Sep 14, 2021, 3:39:08 PMSep 14
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I deserve a prize for two reasons:
1) As far as I know, the XGID is now formatted correctly.
2) The quiz would make a good entry in a competition
for the most...[Filling in the sentence would create a spoiler].

Paul

XGID=aBBBB-B-AA----Aa---bccBcb-:3:1:1:00:4:8:3:0:10

Score is X:4 O:8. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X O O |
| | | O O O X O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 8 |
| X X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 82 X-O: 4-8
Cube: 8, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

badgolferman

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Sep 14, 2021, 4:23:53 PMSep 14
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Cube action is not my strength. Having said that I would say Too
Good/Drop. O is screwed once X hits the loose checker.

Timothy Chow

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Sep 14, 2021, 9:49:34 PMSep 14
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Containment cubes where the defender has (1) a single checker on the
bar against a five-point board with an open 5pt and (2) a five-point
board of her own are usually takes when the pip count difference is
this large. But O has an extra blot in the outfield, which jacks up
her gammon losses. I think I'd pass this one.

---
Tim Chow

peps...@gmail.com

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Sep 15, 2021, 4:08:01 AMSep 15
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Maybe it's lazy of me not to do any variantization here.
However, it should be possible to variantize by removing the outfield blot while retaining the pip counts and
other key features. But I think that such variantizations lead generally to ND/T and not D/T which
impacts your reasoning (if I'm correct).

Paul

peps...@gmail.com

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Sep 15, 2021, 5:22:45 PMSep 15
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On Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 2:49:34 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
Ultra-marginal.
So what prize do I win?
The prize for the most marginal take/pass decision in
a contact position in a money game.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 69.85% (G:19.88% B:0.48%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.15% (G:6.84% B:0.28%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.03% (G:20.64% B:0.56%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.97% (G:8.80% B:0.48%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.529, Double=+1.120

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.748 (-0.250)
Redouble/Take: +0.998
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.002)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.745..+0.752)
Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+0.989..+1.007)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 65.3%

Duration: 10 minutes 12 seconds


Timothy Chow

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Sep 18, 2021, 7:55:38 PMSep 18
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On 9/15/2021 5:22 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> So what prize do I win?
> The prize for the most marginal take/pass decision in
> a contact position in a money game.

It took me a while, but I finally found Nack Ballard's contender
for this prize. It's the position below.

XGID=bB-B--C-B---dD---c-d-b-AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X X O O | | O X |
| O O | | O X |
| O | | O X |
| O | | X |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | O |
| X | | O |
| X X X | | X O |
| X X X | | X O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Nack did a 164600-game rollout and XG reported the equity as
+1.0000 with a 50.0% take decision confidence. You can view
his rollout here (it might take a while for the webpage to load
because bgonline.org is still plagued by server problems):

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=161608

Nack did admit that he fiddled with the number of trials in order
to get the perfect borderline result:

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=161721

---
Tim Chow

peps...@gmail.com

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Sep 18, 2021, 8:43:25 PMSep 18
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How long was his prison sentence as a result of that confession, or had the
statute of limitations expired?

Paul
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