Backgame cube (for money)

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=-bbBBBFB-A--a-a--a-bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X O O |
| O X X | | X X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 83 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[peps...@gmail.com]

ND/T
I'll hold this one because I don't see many big market losers.
The opponent has excellent timing.
I think that little is lost by waiting until we've improved our structure
by clearing one or two more points.
Of course, the 1-2 backgame is notoriously weak because many numbers
that would normally be awkward for us, against other backgames, are numbers
that we can't play.
But the 1-2 isn't bad enough for us to turn the cube right away.
Also the opponent might be able to get a better backgame by springing
a deucepoint checker in the hope of forcing us to blot on the deuce.
I don't know whether the 1-2 backgame player should try to break the
deuce point.

Who knows good strategy re springing from the deuce while playing a 1-2 backgame?
Tim knows.
Stick knows.
Adam Tansley knows.
Raccoon knows.
Bradley Sherman knows.
Wally knows.
Blue Dice knows.

Hellooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
It's hot in here.

Can any of y'all help me?

Thank You.

Paul

[ah....Clem]

The standard dicta is to cube a backgame when you have three points to
clear in front of the anchors. With five points to clear, that would
imply a hold. Maybe because it's both not good enough and also too
good. Hard to say, but I'll hold here.

With 80 pips of timing and a solid board O should be able to take this
one. Note X's stripped and stacked structure and the bad 64 roll.

ND/T.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

[peps...@gmail.com]

Yes, that's my play too. And some extra remarks:
54 is just as bad as 64.
Most rolls leave 54/64 as anti-jokers for our next roll.
So the immediate and near-immediate probability of leaving the double
shot is nearly 1 - 8/9 * 8/9 = 17/81 = 21%. Of course we need to hit after this
happens so this is about a 10% combined parlay.
So we're doing better than drinking a can of Budweiser but worse than
a slice of mature cheddar with a Prosecco.

Paul

[peps...@gmail.com]

On Friday, June 23, 2023 at 11:55:32 PM UTC+1, ah....Clem wrote:

> On 6/23/2023 7:50 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=-bbBBBFB-A--a-a--a-bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O O | | O O O O |
> > | | | O O O O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | 6 |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X |
> > | X | | X X X X O O |
> > | O X X | | X X X X O O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 83 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X on roll, cube action
> The standard dicta is to cube a backgame when you have three points to
> clear in front of the anchors.

...
Since there's only one principle there, we need the singular form: "dictum"
not "dicta".
Remember to take your Latin books with you on your sailing trips.

Paul

[Timothy Chow]

O's timing might not look that bad, but one needs a lot of timing
to play a 12-backgame. O's main hope here is for X to roll big
right away. XG says that if X rolls something like 51, then he
loses his market. Given that, it makes sense to double now.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 64.91% (G:30.82% B:4.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.09% (G:1.52% B:0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.69% (G:30.49% B:4.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.31% (G:1.54% B:0.06%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.836 (-0.105)
Double/Take: +0.941
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.059)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.825..+0.847)
Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.920..+0.961)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

[ah....Clem]

On 6/24/2023 11:02 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Friday, June 23, 2023 at 11:55:32 PM UTC+1, ah....Clem wrote:

>> The standard dicta is to cube a backgame when you have three points to
>> clear in front of the anchors.

> Since there's only one principle there, we need the singular form: "dictum"
> not "dicta".
> Remember to take your Latin books with you on your sailing trips.

Latin grammar is not my strong point, so mutatis mutandis.

[Timothy Chow]

On 6/25/2023 9:21 PM, ah....Clem wrote:
> On 6/24/2023 11:02 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
>> On Friday, June 23, 2023 at 11:55:32 PM UTC+1, ah....Clem wrote:
>
>>> The standard dicta is to cube a backgame when you have three points to
>>> clear in front of the anchors.
>
>> Since there's only one principle there, we need the singular form:
>> "dictum"
>> not "dicta".
>> Remember to take your Latin books with you on your sailing trips.
>
> Latin grammar is not my strong point, so mutatis mutandis.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod
tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua.

---
Tim Chow

[Stick Rice]

This is a much bigger take than 3 ply/XGR would suggest.

Stick

[peps...@gmail.com]

This is music for my banana yoghurt.
Although ND/T is (of course) wrong,
since we now know that the take is huge, perhaps the ND/T
can be downgraded from felony status to a misdemeanour?

Or is that too much to hope for?

Paul

[Timothy Chow]

Remember that for Stick, a 0.92 take is "much bigger" than a
0.94 take. I'm doing an XGR+ rollout, whose results I hope to
post soon.

How much are thinking when you say "misdemeanour"?

---
Tim Chow

[Timothy Chow]

On 6/30/2023 8:29 AM, I wrote:
> Remember that for Stick, a 0.92 take is "much bigger" than a
> 0.94 take.  I'm doing an XGR+ rollout, whose results I hope to
> post soon.

XGID=-bbBBBFB-A--a-a--a-bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X O O |
| O X X | | X X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 83 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double

Player Winning Chances: 64.71% (G:30.74% B:4.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.29% (G:1.59% B:0.06%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.46% (G:30.48% B:4.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.54% (G:1.61% B:0.06%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.841 (-0.079)
Double/Take: +0.920
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.080)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:

2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.835..+0.846)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.909..+0.931)

[Stick Rice]

Sorry but my own rollout which is ++/++ gigantic has this being worth +0.890.

Stick

[peps...@gmail.com]

At my level, I would thinking I should be wary of checker plays that
lose more than 0.05 equity and cube errors that lose more than 0.1 equity.

So, in this context, if my hold is not as bad as a 0.1 error, I'm hoping that
no mob of rgb paramilitaries will destroy my village.

Paul

[Timothy Chow]

On 6/30/2023 10:08 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
> Sorry but my own rollout which is ++/++ gigantic has this being worth +0.890.

I did my own XGR++/Gigantic rollout but was unable to reproduce
the result that Stick reported. More details here:

https://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=211003

---
Tim Chow