Beware of the pseudo-Axel

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peps...@gmail.com

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May 14, 2022, 8:10:31 AMMay 14
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If I complained that the below position Axelises to an incorrect hold,
I might get a lot of responses asking me to check my Isight.
After all, it isn't a non-contact position.
However, every non-beginner sees this position as a race, and
(almost) every strong player would be using some type of formula here.
This type of almost-no-contact race is extremely common.
I don't think these should be Axelised -- my experience is that 8/9/12
gives better results for this type of position. For one thing, the crossovers
and high-point gaps aren't very relevant here. But 8/9/12 should be adjusted
for high stacks on lower points.
This is not a criticism of Isight at all, since it has been recommended
for races, not near-races.
I correctly doubled here, and I was quite confident about it.

XGID=----C-CBB-ABdB-b-badb-----:0:0:1:00:9:9:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon


Score is X:9 O:9. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O |
| X O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X |
| O X X X X | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 129 X-O: 9-9
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in 4-ply
Player Winning Chances: 74.94% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.499, Double=+0.998

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.776 (-0.043)
Double/Take: +0.819
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.181)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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