Blitz versus prime cube action 2

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=bB-EB-D------A---bbcbbA-b-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X O |
| O O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | X |
| | O | X X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 84 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[peps...@gmail.com]

This is a tough one. I don't think it's TG with being trapped behind a 5 prime and having a somewhat porous
board. Huge double for sure, but is it a pass or a take?
I think it's a pass. We hope to attack the opponent's checkers when they enter. And two on the bar with four away
from the inner board give us gammon chances.
I don't think our winning chances are above 75% but our gammon chances lead me to think it's a pass.
No confidence though.

I seem to remember a John Pilger film campaigning for nuclear disarmament where two of the principals
are enacting a war-game scenario and the dialogue is something like:
"Confidence high?"
"My confidence is high. Is your confidence high?"
"Yes, confidence high."
I'll try and find out more by googling.

Anyway, my confidence is anything but high. Super super low.
But I will go with D/P.

Paul

[ah....Clem]

O loses a fair amount of gammons here, but X needs a six and fairly
soon. Also, X may be forced to leave a shot in his homeboard and if O
sends a second checker back X is in trouble.

I'll say ship it due to the 11 immediate market losers. Don't think it's
TG since five primes can be very resilient. Not sure about the take
decision, but I'll say take since X's structure is so poor and O may own
the outfield in a few rolls.

RD/T.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

[Timothy Chow]

O is certainly in some trouble here, with two checkers on the bar
against a four-point board, and two dead checkers on her 1pt. Her
main hope lies in her superior structure---she has a five-prime of
course, but X also has three semi-dead checkers on his 3pt. X may
collapse if he can't leap the five-prime, or even if he does leap,
the win isn't guaranteed---it's not so easy for him to close out O,
and if O enters quickly then O might hit a blot.

According to the rollout, this is a RD/T. In the variant, I have
moved a spare from X's 3pt to his 6pt; this rolls out to a pass.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 68.96% (G:20.60% B:0.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.04% (G:4.39% B:0.16%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.11% (G:20.75% B:0.21%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.89% (G:4.33% B:0.16%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.716 (-0.135)
Redouble/Take: +0.851
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.149)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.706..+0.727)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.837..+0.865)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=bB-DB-E------A---bbcbbA-b-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X O |
| O O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | X |
| | O | X X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 87 O: 118 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 71.41% (G:23.00% B:0.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.59% (G:3.65% B:0.12%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.73% (G:23.00% B:0.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.27% (G:3.61% B:0.12%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.825 (-0.175)
Redouble/Take: +1.044 (+0.044)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.818..+0.832)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.033..+1.056)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

[peps...@gmail.com]

As often, I like the way ah..Clem thought about the position.
He seems more or less spot on.

Paul