Blitz versus prime cube action

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=b-ABBBB-A---cB---bccb-AAA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X X |
| X O O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[Timothy Chow]

O has two items of compensation to consider. (1) X has three
checkers behind O's four-prime, with only one of them ready to
jump out directly with a 6 (and his 6's are duplicated to jump
out and cover). (2) X still has a blot in his board that he
might not cover. I thought this was enough to give O a take,
but XG disagrees. But see the variant, where X's blot has been
shifted from his 2pt to his 1pt.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.35% (G:42.31% B:1.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.65% (G:8.20% B:0.45%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.50% (G:42.91% B:1.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.50% (G:8.28% B:0.48%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.812 (-0.188)
Double/Take: +1.091 (+0.091)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.017 (+0.795..+0.829)
Confidence Double: ± 0.023 (+1.068..+1.115)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=bA-BBBBA----cB---bccb-AAA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X X |
| X O O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 139 O: 154 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 63.52% (G:41.95% B:0.60%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.48% (G:9.19% B:0.54%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.95% (G:42.34% B:0.60%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.05% (G:9.61% B:0.55%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.733 (-0.183)
Double/Take: +0.916
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.084)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.720..+0.746)
Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.895..+0.937)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

[Stick Rice]

Usually worth looking at too in similar positions is push the prime forward for the person facing the T/P decision. It remains a four prime and here is easier to jump but it also makes our hits more potent and sometimes cuts down on our gammons lost simply by taking the crossovers.
(XGID=b-ABBBB-A---cB----ccbbAAA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 - which turns out to be a very close take/pass decision leaning slightly to the pass side)

Stick