Six-primed

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=aCFa-BC-------a---bbbbbbA-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 67 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

[badgolferman]

X will be crunching very soon and most likely facing a gammon. I think
the only chance is to build a point in O's home board. I'd rather try
now before O starts hitting my straggler back there. Let's leave a man
open and hope he gets hit so I can enter with a 1.

6/3* 5/3

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=aCFa-BC-------a---bbbbbbA-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 67 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32

Getting a second checker back so that X can anchor is often the best
way to win desperate positions like this one, but does it lose too
many gammons? Perhaps surprisingly, the play preferred by XG and by
badgolferman, namely 6/3* 5/3, actually loses fewer gammons than the
alternatives that don't leave an immediate blot. The problem with
6/3*/1 or 6/1 is that X is likely to leave a blot later anyway, so
he might as well focus on creating the best structure he can.

1. Rollout¹ 6/3* 5/3 eq:-1.135
Player: 3.93% (G:0.20% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 96.07% (G:21.77% B:0.79%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-1.138..-1.131) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/3* 3/1 eq:-1.178 (-0.043)
Player: 3.65% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 96.35% (G:25.35% B:1.02%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-1.180..-1.175) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 5/2 5/3* eq:-1.194 (-0.059)
Player: 3.65% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 96.35% (G:26.96% B:1.05%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-1.197..-1.191) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/1 eq:-1.203 (-0.068)
Player: 3.45% (G:0.22% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 96.55% (G:27.24% B:1.15%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-1.205..-1.200) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

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Tim Chow