Racing cube at 3-away/5-away

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=-B-BA------------------bc-:1:1:1:00:4:2:0:7:10

Score is X:4 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 12 O: 7 X-O: 4-2/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[Axel Reichert]

After a take it is an automatic redouble with the match on the line for
both, so the take point for her is about 15 per cent and my cash point
is 85 per cent.

Isight method gives 12 versus 7 + 1 (for the gap on 4) + 2 (for the
stack on 1) adjusted pips and an estimated winning chance for the game
of

80 - 12/3 + (10 - 12)*2 = 72 per cent

This seems to be too far away from my cash point, so it is ND/T for me.

Best regards

Axel

[Timothy Chow]

Of course this is a massive redouble for money. It's not quite a
three-roll position, but it turns out to be a pass for money.

At this score, however, it's a different story. Even if it were
a pure three-roll position, it would be NRD/T. With a pure three-
roll position, 5/6 of the time, O rolls non-doublets, which
loses X's market if X doesn't redouble now. With so many market
losers, you might think it would have to be a redouble, but X gains
hardly any MWC by redoubling; if he redoubles now, then he winds up
with 86% MWC in such situations (or 100% if he is lucky enough to
roll doublets immediately), but if he doesn't redouble the he
just cashes, for 84% MWC. By contrast, if he rolls non-doublets
and O rolls doublets, then he will massively regret redoubling.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 75.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.719
Redouble/Take: +0.496 (-0.223)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.281)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 44.3%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++
Search interval: Gigantic
Confidence No Double: ± 0.000 (+0.719..+0.719)
Confidence Double: ± 0.000 (+0.496..+0.496)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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Money
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XGID=-B-BA------------------bc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game

+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 12 O: 7 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 75.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.740 (-0.260)
Redouble/Take: +1.021 (+0.021)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++
Search interval: Gigantic
Confidence No Double: ± 0.000 (+0.740..+0.740)
Confidence Double: ± 0.000 (+1.021..+1.021)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow