Murat's proposal II: does cube magnify luck or skill (variation A)
muratk
cube magnifies luck or skill in backgammon.
Since strong and consistent analysis will be essential in conducting
this test, we will use the claimedly strongest extraterrestrial-class
robot gnudung for analysis.
In this variation, we will also have gnudung play agaist itself,
perfect both in checker play and cube play, at its strongest settings
(as gnudung-K and gnudung-L).
Results of four billion matches of 25-pointsas the standard match
length in world-class championships) will be considered accurate
enough for our purpose.
We have the ingredients of this simple recipe. Let's get cooking.
Since gnudung already analyzes each roll for luck determination and
each checker move for error (i.e. "skill") determination, all we have
to do is to look at the dice roll and checker play immediately
preceeding every cube action and keep statistics.
What will this test accomplish? Normally it would show whether a cube
action arose out of a lucky/unlucky roll or out of a good/bad checker
move.
What will this test really prove? Since gnudung-K and gnudung-L are
both extraterrestrial-class robots that make no checker play errors,
no cube action can be argued to arise out of good/bad checker move
(unlike in Patti's example where her opponent cubed her out after her
blundering).
Thus, with perfect checker player bot against perfect checker player
bot, the only valid argument can be that cube actions arise out of
lucky/unlucky rolls, meaning that the cube magnifies "luck"...!
Sorry folks, you all just have to swallow really hard on this one... :
((
MK