The safe play is ugly

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=--b--BDaB-B-cE---aac-b-b--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X O | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

[Timothy Chow]

This is another one of those positions where I had trouble judging
whether O's board was too strong to risk a direct shot.

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.307
Player: 67.98% (G:12.54% B:0.68%)
Opponent: 32.02% (G:7.36% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.299..+0.315) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.230 (-0.077)
Player: 65.38% (G:11.25% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 34.62% (G:7.45% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.222..+0.237) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/5 eq:+0.226 (-0.082)
Player: 64.94% (G:11.09% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 35.06% (G:6.96% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.218..+0.233) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--b--BDaB-B-cE----bcb-b---:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| X O | | O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O | | 2 |

| X | | O | +---+
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X O | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 135 O: 151 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.227
Player: 65.28% (G:11.76% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 34.72% (G:7.82% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.219..+0.236) - [92.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/5 eq:+0.219 (-0.008)
Player: 64.67% (G:11.09% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 35.33% (G:6.93% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.211..+0.226) - [7.4%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

[peps...@gmail.com]

I Walted this one and correctly chose the safe play.
I wasn't confident, though.

Paul

[peps...@gmail.com]

Sorry, I misread. I chose the safe play -- 10/6 10/5
which is not the optimal choice.

Paul