Hit?

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=---bBaC-DB---B--a-abbbBbb-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X O O |
| X | | O O O X O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| X X | | X X O | | 2 |
| X X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

[ah....Clem]

Three point vs three point anchor game. I don't see a lot of those.

Seems like timing is the main issue here, X has it, O does not. In a
roll or three X will be able to leap out and own the outfield while O
either exposes a direct shot or crunches her board. So, the hit seems
premature.

But with the strong board, I don't want to volunteer a shot. I guess
that leaves 6/1, which looks ugly, but seem like the best alternative.


--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

[Stick Rice]

Which play do you make at dmp? Is it super clear that that play is correct at dmp?

Stick

[Timothy Chow]

I didn't consider, or roll out, 6/1, which XGR+ says is a double
whopper. The alternative to hitting that I considered was 13/8,
which gives O six hitting rolls, and further stacks up on the
heavy 8pt. By contrast, in the variant below, 14/9 leaves only
four hitting rolls, and puts a spare on the 9pt.

1. Rollout¹ 8/6 8/5* eq:+0.368
Player: 57.06% (G:15.47% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 42.94% (G:18.10% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.358..+0.379) - [83.4%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5* 6/4 eq:+0.361 (-0.007)
Player: 56.95% (G:15.06% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 43.05% (G:18.24% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.352..+0.371) - [16.6%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:+0.227 (-0.141)
Player: 52.31% (G:11.33% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 47.69% (G:14.25% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.218..+0.237) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---bBaC-DB----B-a-abbbBbb-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X O O |
| X | | O O O X O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| X X | | X X O | | 2 |
| X X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 148 O: 116 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32

1. Rollout¹ 14/9 eq:+0.377
Player: 56.70% (G:12.92% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 43.30% (G:12.50% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.367..+0.387) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/6 8/5* eq:+0.308 (-0.069)
Player: 54.91% (G:14.73% B:0.71%)
Opponent: 45.09% (G:18.99% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.294..+0.322) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow