32 to play

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=-a----ECC-a-cB---b-dbAb-A-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

[ah...Clem]

Hitting establishes a clear race lead and takes away half her roll.
Anchoring on her four point is a good defensive move.
And making the fie point is...making the five point.

Which is best? I'm not sure, so I'll make the five point.

[Timothy Chow]

Hitting might seem tempting, but is simply too loose given X's deficit
in board strength and lack of an anchor. Making the 5pt is always a
candidate, but again, X's lack of anchor in the face of O's looming
attack means that making the 5pt will lose a lot of gammons.

After anchoring with 24/21, can X take a risk by slotting? I thought
so, but XG vehemently disagrees, and insists on 24/21 8/6.

In the variant, I have moved O's outfield blot all the way back to
her 24pt, and making the 5pt becomes a top candidate for XG (tied with
24/21 8/6) despite losing more gammons.

1. Rollout¹ 24/21 8/6 eq:-0.264
Player: 42.28% (G:7.20% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 57.72% (G:7.74% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.274..-0.254) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/21 6/4 eq:-0.361 (-0.097)
Player: 40.82% (G:7.67% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 59.18% (G:11.48% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.373..-0.349) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/5 7/5 eq:-0.374 (-0.110)
Player: 41.98% (G:11.90% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 58.02% (G:23.61% B:0.98%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.389..-0.359) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 24/21 7/5 eq:-0.375 (-0.111)
Player: 40.32% (G:7.72% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 59.68% (G:11.87% B:0.43%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.387..-0.363) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-b----ECC---cB---b-dbAb-A-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 146 O: 143 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X to play 32

1. Rollout¹ 8/5 7/5 eq:+0.005
Player: 51.37% (G:16.51% B:1.14%)
Opponent: 48.63% (G:19.81% B:0.81%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.005..+0.014) - [88.2%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/21 8/6 eq:-0.003 (-0.008)
Player: 49.35% (G:11.21% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 50.65% (G:9.25% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.012..+0.006) - [11.8%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

[Bradley K. Sherman]

Timothy Chow <tchow...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> ...

> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O X O X |
> | X O | | O O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X X | | X |
> | O X X | | X |
> | O O X X | | X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

> ...
>X to play 32
> ...

>After anchoring with 24/21, can X take a risk by slotting? I thought
>so, but XG vehemently disagrees, and insists on 24/21 8/6.

> ...

Yuck. If slotting is wrong I don't want to be right.

--bks

[Stick Rice]

Slotting is a big over play. While we may seem stacked we still have three active builders to make points in our inner board and that's plenty. We will also rip down the midpoint with our ugly bigger numbers and create more builders. The points will come naturally, no reason to risk it against the opp's firm offensive structure.

Stick

[Timothy Chow]

On 9/23/2023 1:45 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
> Slotting is a big over play. While we may seem stacked we still have three active builders to make points in our inner board and that's plenty. We will also rip down the midpoint with our ugly bigger numbers and create more builders. The points will come naturally, no reason to risk it against the opp's firm offensive structure.

Your comment about "three active builders" suggested to me the
variant below, where the decision is closer, according to XG.

XGID=--a---ECC-a-cB---b-dbAb-A-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game

+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 146 O: 133 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X to play 32

1. Rollout¹ 24/21 8/6 eq:-0.265
Player: 42.11% (G:6.94% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 57.89% (G:7.69% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.275..-0.256) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/21 6/4 eq:-0.317 (-0.052)
Player: 41.85% (G:8.09% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 58.15% (G:11.32% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.328..-0.306) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---

Tim Chow