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I sure hope O doesn't roll snake eyes next
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Timothy Chow
Feb 13, 2024, 10:23:40 AMFeb 13
to
XGID=--a-B-EBBb---B----cc-cAcA-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41
---
Tim Chow
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41
---
Tim Chow
Timothy Chow
Feb 17, 2024, 4:41:48 PMFeb 17
to
but O has a lot of hitting rolls regardless, and playing 6/2*/1 puts
one of our checkers out of play. By contrast, slotting 6/5 gains a
lot when it works.
1. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.255
Player: 46.03% (G:12.36% B:0.83%)
Opponent: 53.97% (G:28.35% B:1.03%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.265..-0.244) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 6/2* 2/1 eq:-0.408 (-0.153)
Player: 41.13% (G:10.98% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 58.87% (G:23.53% B:0.80%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.423..-0.394) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---------
Variant 1
---------
XGID=--a-B-E-Db---B----cc-cAcA-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41
1. Rollout¹ 6/2* 2/1 eq:-0.614
X to play 41
Player: 36.64% (G:9.25% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 63.36% (G:25.80% B:0.93%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.632..-0.596) - [75.6%]
2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.622 (-0.009)
Player: 37.63% (G:9.50% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 62.37% (G:29.55% B:0.99%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.640..-0.605) - [24.4%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---------
Variant 2
---------
XGID=---aB-DBCb---B----cc-cAcA-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Cube: 1
X to play 41
1. Rollout¹ 8/3* eq:-0.339
X to play 41
Player: 43.56% (G:11.67% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 56.44% (G:24.84% B:1.01%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.352..-0.327) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.382 (-0.043)
Player: 41.87% (G:10.30% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 58.13% (G:25.53% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.393..-0.372) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 24/20 8/7 eq:-0.385 (-0.046)
Player: 40.92% (G:9.68% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 59.08% (G:21.56% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.397..-0.373) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
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