21 Mayıs 2022 Cumartesi tarihinde saat 18:05:00 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
The right play and theme is 11/5. And Stick Rice’s comment about this move is quite satisfying. But failure to grasp the main theme is not the only reason why the error is so great. I think there are 3 more important points.
The fist is O’s blot on the 23 point. The checker duplicates O’s fours. In variant 1, I moved that checker from 23 to 22. And I removed it in variant 2.
Variant 1
XGID=-aBBB-BBA--B---b-bbdcBa---:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
1. Rollout¹ 11/5 eq:+0,470
Player: 62,77% (G:12,67% B:0,31%)
Opponent: 37,23% (G:7,67% B:0,29%)
Confidence: ±0,008 (+0,462..+0,478) - [100,0%]
2. Rollout¹ 11/6 8/7 eq:+0,271 (-0,199)
Player: 57,30% (G:11,07% B:0,32%)
Opponent: 42,70% (G:6,32% B:0,25%)
Confidence: ±0,012 (+0,258..+0,283) - [0,0%]
3. Rollout¹ 11/10 11/6 eq:+0,216 (-0,254)
Player: 56,14% (G:10,82% B:0,30%)
Opponent: 43,86% (G:6,37% B:0,24%)
Confidence: ±0,012 (+0,204..+0,227) - [0,0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Variant 2
XGID=-aBBB-BBA--B---b-bbddB----:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
1. Rollout¹ 11/5 eq:+0,462
Player: 62,87% (G:13,19% B:0,32%)
Opponent: 37,13% (G:6,83% B:0,20%)
Confidence: ±0,008 (+0,453..+0,470) - [100,0%]
2. Rollout¹ 11/6 8/7 eq:+0,308 (-0,154)
Player: 58,48% (G:11,40% B:0,31%)
Opponent: 41,52% (G:6,12% B:0,23%)
Confidence: ±0,013 (+0,295..+0,320) - [0,0%]
3. Rollout¹ 11/10 11/6 eq:+0,224 (-0,237)
Player: 56,40% (G:11,00% B:0,28%)
Opponent: 43,60% (G:6,02% B:0,22%)
Confidence: ±0,012 (+0,212..+0,237) - [0,0%]
Second, John's timing is shaky. The third is the location of the cube. In the third variant, I made all the changes simultaneously. In other words, the cube is now at 2, no blots, and O has 2 checkers on the mid-point to play comfortably.
Variant 3
XGID=-aBBB-BBA--Bb--b-bbccB----:1:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
Pip count X: 116 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51
1. Rollout¹ 11/5 eq:-0,138
Player: 50,27% (G:15,21% B:0,35%)
Opponent: 49,73% (G:8,90% B:0,38%)
Confidence: ±0,010 (-0,148..-0,128) - [100,0%]
2. Rollout¹ 11/6 8/7 eq:-0,199 (-0,062)
Player: 48,59% (G:14,13% B:0,29%)
Opponent: 51,41% (G:8,30% B:0,37%)
Confidence: ±0,011 (-0,210..-0,189) - [0,0%]
3. Rollout¹ 11/10 11/6 eq:-0,237 (-0,100)
Player: 47,09% (G:13,04% B:0,20%)
Opponent: 52,91% (G:7,63% B:0,34%)
Confidence: ±0,010 (-0,247..-0,227) - [0,0%]